Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/17/26

The in-state rivalry between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Longhorns hits the hardwood on Saturday night in Austin at 6:00 pm ET on ESPN. Texas A&M comes into this game off a 2OT loss at Tennessee on Tuesday, and will be facing their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in 4 outings. Meanwhile, after starting 0-2 in conference play, the Longhorns have won 2 straight over Alabama and Vanderbilt and aim to make it 3 in a row against their heated rival.

I worry about Texas A&M here, especially off a 2OT game mid-week. The Aggies boast a top-3 defense in league play thus far, but they’ve been pummeled on the glass – specifically on the defensive end. They are dead last in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate allowed, giving up an average of 13.5 of them on the road. That could spell disaster in Austin on Saturday, as the Longhorns are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, averaging 11.6 per game (30th) while ranking top-40 in potential points off second-chance opportunities and second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics). Texas should be able to exploit this mismatch and continue to build on their 15+ second-chance points per game, which is in the 96th percentile nationally per CBB Analytics. 

The Longhorns should also be able to produce points at the free throw line consistently throughout this game given they are 1st nationally in free throw rate. Texas A&M will likely oblige, as the Aggies are 216th nationally in free throw rate allowed and 11th in the SEC. Look for Texas’ rebounding edge and free throw disparity to be the difference.

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4. 

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