Texas Longhorns vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 01/10/26

The Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet in an SEC showdown in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night, with both teams coming into this game off a loss. Texas has actually lost 2 straight, is 0-2 in SEC play, and is facing its 2nd straight road game in as many outings. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off a 96-90 loss at Vanderbilt following an 89-74 win over Kentucky. 

Texas is starting an 0-3 conference record in the face, as I don’t think the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow the Tide down. Texas is just 120th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the 211th offensive strength of schedule, and through 2 SEC games, the Longhorns are near the bottom of the conference in multiple defensive metrics like defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding rate allowed, and foul rate. When playing away from home, they drop to 317th in effective field goal percentage and 340th in free throw rate allowed.

Alabama is built to take advantage of inefficient defenses, especially at home – where they have the top-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency in the country per Bart Torvik and average more than 93 points per game. Even if Aiden Sherrell doesn’t return from injury here, I lean to Bama to win by margin.

Texas vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.  

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