Texas Longhorns vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/04/26

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Following a 76-70 revenge win on the road over their in-state rivals on Saturday, the Texas Longhorns will travel to Fayetteville to play the Razorbacks on Wednesday night, on what will be Senior Night for Trevon Brazile and Nick Pringle. The win snapped a 2-game losing streak for Texas, which came on the heels of a 5-game win streak and 6 wins in 7 outings. On the other end, the Razorbacks were embarrassed by Florida in Gainesville on Saturday night, 111-77, surrendering 1.37 points per possession while scoring just 0.95 on their own. They ended the month of February at 5-2 SU.

This is a matchup between 2 of the country’s 10 most efficient offenses over the course of the season and the last month, leading to plenty of high-scoring games and overs for both teams. However, Texas has really slowed its pace of play lately, and I fell victim to that on Saturday in their meeting with Texas A&M as I held an over ticket that never had a chance. Arkansas plays with a similar pace to Texas A&M, so I have to imagine Sean Miller’s squad will continue its 10-game trend of playing to just 64 possessions per game (23rd percentile) – down from their season-long numbers just above 66.5 – in an attempt to control the amount of possessions in this game. 

In addition to similar offensive efficiency metrics, neither team is very good defensively and both are outside the top 240 in three-point rate. So, why is Arkansas laying north of 2 possessions in this one? Well, the Razorbacks have been a bet-on team in general at 19-10 ATS this season, but particularly at home and off losses. On the contrary, Texas is 16-12 ATS and boasts a 7-2 ATS record in true road games this year, so for my money, the ATS trends cancel out. 

Where Texas seems to have the edge in this matchup is through their ability to create quality looks, as the Longhorns are elite in their rim attacks against conference opponents, top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd nationally in free throw rate. Moreover, they like to get Matas Vokiettaitis and Dailyn Swain plenty of paint touches as screen rollers or in post-ups. The Razorbacks aren’t exactly strong defensively in any of these areas, particularly on the defensive glass and in the paint – where they are in the 2nd percentile in second-chance points allowed per game and in the 7th percentile in paint points allowed per game. As a result, I lean to Texas to keep this game closer than the line suggests.

Texas vs Arkansas prediction: Texas +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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