Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/20/26

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 14-4 overall and 4-1 in conference play, riding a 3-game winning streak ahead of their trip to Waco, Texas to play the Baylor Bears on Tuesday. Saturday’s win was extremely impressive for the Red Raiders, as they let BYU take a 61-52 lead with about 9 minutes left in the 2nd half before ending the game on a 32-10 run to ultimately win by 13. Texas Tech scored 1.2 points per possession, shot 53% from inside the arc and made 38% of their three-point attempts in the victory, as JT Toppin, Christian Anderson and LeJuan Watts combined for 69 of TTU’s 84 points. 

Baylor’s recent stretch has been the polar opposite of Texas Tech’s. While the Bears are 11-6 overall, they are just 1-4 in conference play. Their lone win came on the road at Oklahoma State by 15, but their losses came by 6 points at TCU, 10 points at home against Iowa State, 22 points at home against Houston and 18 points at Kansas. We profited on a few of those Baylor blunders, so are we going back to the well and fading the Bears again on Tuesday?

Yes we are! Each time we’ve gone against Baylor, it has been with a team that can shut the Bears down in transition and limit dives to the rim. Texas Tech can do just that, sitting in the 98th percentile in transition defense and 95th percentile against perimeter cuts (Hoop-Explorer), while allowing shots at the rim 4% less than the average Division 1 team (CBB Analytics). The Red Raiders boast the 4th-most efficient defense in the conference per KenPom’s metrics, along the 2nd-best effective field goal percentage allowed, and they yield the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the Big 12, too – which takes away yet another area Baylor relies on for scoring. This Bears squad is last in the conference in multiple offensive metrics including efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate and free throw percentage. It’s going to be tough for them to match Tech’s offensive output, even if they are at home.

Texas Tech vs Baylor prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders ML (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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