Texas Tech Red Raiders vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/07/26

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We have a battle between teams trending in opposite directions in Big 12 play on Saturday when the Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Provo, Utah for a date with a BYU team that needs a win in the worst way following a very poor stretch of play in recent weeks. It’s clear that the Cougars really miss senior forward Richie Saunders, who certainly provided more balance and scoring depth for their offense. Saunders is out for the year with a torn ACL he suffered against Colorado back on February 14, and Kevin Young’s team is just 1-4 since that point, including losses at West Virginia and at home as a double-digit favorite against UCF. BYU was just embarrassed against Cincinnati earlier this week, a game in which they allowed 90 points to a very mediocre offense. With that said, the Cougars are still 11-3 at home this season and just knocked off Iowa State in a similar type of desperate spot 2 weeks ago. Will we see a repeat of that result on Saturday? It’s almost time to find out.

There’s certainly a path for BYU to see success in this one. For starters, AJ Dybantsa and the Cougars’ efficient offense (12th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom) is going up against a Texas Tech defense that is certainly weaker inside the paint without the services of JT Toppin, who is also out for the season with a torn ACL. To their credit, the Red Raiders have played very well without Toppin to this point, but some of that is due to the level of competition they’ve faced and the fact that they have shot unsustainably well from beyond the 3-point line. Texas Tech still has a major problem with getting to the free-throw line (ranked 344th in free-throw rate), and we saw that 3-point regression start to take hold in a loss to TCU earlier this week. The Cougars should have the ability to drag this very thin Texas Tech team into a fast-paced game, which could have a real impact by the second half from a fatigue perspective. If BYU is able to limit its turnovers and maintain an edge on the glass, it should win the shot volume battle in the long run and generate plenty of good looks from deep. Let’s target BYU to pick up a massive win and cover this short number at the Marriott Center.

Texas Tech vs BYU prediction: BYU -2 available at time of publishing. Playable to BYU -3. 

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