Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/16/25

The Toledo Rockets and the Michigan State Spartans will meet at the Breslin Center in East Lansing on Tuesday in a MAC vs. Big Ten non-conference showdown. The Rockets are 5-5 with losses in 3 of their last 4, while the Spartans are 9-1 with their lone loss coming at home against Duke on December 6th. This will be the third straight road game for Toledo, as well as its 5th game away from home in its last 6 outings. Not to mention, this will be a dramatic step up in class for Toledo, as the Rockets have yet to play a power-conference opponent or any team ranked inside KenPom’s top 75. 

Toledo relies heavily on scoring in the paint, which will likely be hard to come by against a team like Michigan State. Sparty has a distinct size advantage in this matchup with Jaxson Kohler and Carson Cooper roaming the paint and awaiting shot-blocking opportunities. The Spartans use that size advantage to dominate the glass and defend at a high level, as they rank 4th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and 23rd in opposing effective field goal percentage. 

On the other end of the floor, it’s hard to see how Toledo will get stops. The Rockets have been bad defensively, sitting 287th in adjusted efficiency and 342nd in opposing effective field goal percentage. Due to a lack of size, they have been abysmal defending around the rim, which is a nightmare scenario against this MSU front court. Defending Jeremy Fears Jr. also figures to be a nightmare for a Toledo back court that lacks a defensive stalwart. Following their loss to Duke and near-loss at Penn State, look for Tom Izzo and the Spartans to use this as a get-right game against an inferior opponent that lacks reliability on both ends. 

Toledo vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans -23 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -24. 

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