UIC Flames vs Northern Iowa Panthers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 03/08/26

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The Missouri Valley Conference is one of the best mid-major tournaments on the Championship Week calendar every year, and this season’s installment has been no exception. Top-seeded Belmont was upset in the quarterfinal round, which has led to a couple of the lower seeds playing for an NCAA Tournament berth on Sunday. On one side, UIC has dispatched of both opponents its played thus far, winning both of its games in this tournament by double digits. On the other end, Northern Iowa has rattled off 3 wins in as many days to advance to this game, including wins over Illinois State and Bradley. The Panthers have been no stranger to success in “Arch Madness”, and while I do lean toward backing Northern Iowa as the side in this one, I have more conviction with targeting the total on Sunday.

Historically, this tournament has been one that features plenty of low-scoring contests, particularly in the title game. In fact, we just saw Drake knock off Bradley in a championship game that featured just 111 total points a season ago. While I don’t expect this game to be as low-scoring as last year’s installment, we should still see a game dictated by both defenses on Sunday. Northern Iowa is a top 25 defense in the nation per KenPom and BartTorvik, and the Panthers are especially elite at cleaning the glass (ranked 20th in defensive rebounding percentage) and defending the arc (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed). On the other side, UIC boasts a strong defense of its own, as the Flames are excellent on the glass and adept at forcing turnovers. Lastly, both teams play at an extremely slow pace, with Northern Iowa sitting at 364th in adjusted tempo and UIC checking in at 235th in that same metric. We should see a slow, grind-it-out affair in St. Louis on Sunday.

UIC vs Northern Iowa prediction: Under 125.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 124.5

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