UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Furman Paladins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/08/26

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The Southern Conference Tournament has reached the semifinals, as the UNC Greensboro Spartans battle the Furman Paladins for a chance to play for a conference title and automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. To get here, UNCG first defeated VMI 84-70 on Friday, and then turned around and beat Wofford on Saturday 75-72 despite forcing just 2 Wofford turnovers and trailing by 9 with just under 13 minutes to play. As for Furman, the Paladins have played only one tournament game thus far, which was an 86-81 win over Samford on Saturday. They knocked down 52% of their threes and 81% of their free throws, while turning Samford over 11 times and winning the rebounding battle.

These teams met twice during the regular season and they split the results, each winning on the road. In the first meeting, Furman smacked UNCG 89-66 despite not having 3 key contributors in Asa Thomas, Cooper Bowser and Eddrin Bronson. Like they did yesterday, the Paladins made 50% of their threes in that game – thanks to Tom House and Alex Wilkins combining to go 11-of-17– while the Spartans were just 7-of-26 from deep. In the return game in Greensboro, the Spartans returned the favor 67-64, leading by as many as 10 in the second half and knocking down almost 53% of their shots beyond the arc while holding the Paladins to 26%.

As you would probably guess, three-point variance is going to play a pivotal role in this SoCon semifinal. Furman loves to jack shots from distance, but despite their outburst yesterday and in the first meeting with UNCG, the Paladins aren’t exactly an efficient three-point shooting team. Fewer than 33% of their deep balls go through the net, which can make for a lot of bricks on a bad shooting night given their top-40 three-point rate. The Spartans aren’t exactly going to stop Furman from shooting them either, as they are 349th in three-point rate allowed and 353rd in opposing three-point percentage. On the other end, UNCG shoots threes about 7% less than Furman in conference play, but the Spartans are more consistent in the shot-making department – knocking down 38% of those perimeter attempts. 

With a line north of 2 possessions, oddsmakers seem to expect Furman to have another solid shooting performance on Sunday, but I’m not quite there considering the Paladins haven’t shown much shooting consistency of late. Case in point, Furman knocked down 11 threes yesterday after knocking down 11 in their 2 previous games combined. It makes sense, as they have just 1 reliable volume shooter in Thomas, who knocks down around 40% of his threes. No one else on the team with more than 70 perimeter attempts is over 35%. Compare that to UNCG, who has connected on at least 9 threes in 4 of their last 5 games and 8 of their last 10. The Spartans have 2 shooters above 38% with another around 35%. You can see why I’m pessimistic about Furman’s shooting here. 

Also of concern is Furman’s turnover rate, as the Paladins are 252nd nationally and worst in the conference in that regard. They don’t get to the free-throw line much either, which could further hinder their scoring if they aren’t making their shots. If Furman puts up stellar shooting performances in back-to-back games, so be it, but I can’t justify this price tag given their inconsistencies to this point. I may even sprinkle on the money line given UNCG coach Mike Jones’ historical success against Furman’s Bob Richey.

UNC Greensboro vs Furman prediction: UNC Greensboro Spartans +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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