USC Trojans vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 01/05/26

Following a 30-point, blowout loss at Michigan, the USC Trojans will make the short trip to East Lansing to play the Michigan State Spartans on Monday. Meanwhile, Sparty is off a loss of its own after falling on the road at Nebraska 58-56 on Friday. Both teams were similarly bad in their last outing, as the Trojans held no lead, scored just 0.79 points per possession and made just 20 of their combined 58 shot attempts from inside and outside the arc. As for MSU, the Spartans scored just 0.87 points per possession and made only 17 of their 50 combined shots against the Cornhuskers. Now, Tom Izzo’s Spartans return home to the Breslin Center, where they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off a road loss. 

This is a big number, but I can only side with Michigan State here. The Spartans are dominant on the boards, sitting 9th in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd in offensive rebounding rate allowed, and the Trojans have really struggled to keep their opponents off the glass. For reference, they are 315th nationally in opposing offensive rebounds per game, allowing almost 11. That’s a dangerous game to play against this Michigan State squad considering the Spartans are 2nd in potential points off second-chance opportunities and 11th in second-chance conversion percentage per Haslametrics. 

Michigan State should also abuse USC’s defense in the mid range. The Trojans funnel their opponents into mid-range jump shots, and that’s exactly where the Spartans are comfortable offensively. In fact, they are top-65 in mid-range rate, while USC sits 212th in mid-range rate allowed. Look for the Spartans to find success offensively throughout this game while dominating the boards en route to a win and cover at home.

USC vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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