USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/02/26

The Michigan Wolverines came out of the holiday break looking just like they did prior to the week off when they dismantled McNeese State on Monday 112-71. The win moved the Wolverines to a perfect 12-0 ahead of Friday’s conference matchup against the USC Trojans. USC has not played since December 21st, but the Trojans are a strong 12-1 themselves – though they haven’t played anyone near as strong as Michigan. They also haven’t ventured out east at all yet. 

Betting overs on totals of 165 or higher has not been a profitable venture this year, but I’m going against the trends in this one. Both USC and Michigan are top-65 in adjusted tempo and average possession length (KenPOm), with the Wolverines sitting top-10 in those metrics. Not only do they play fast, but the Trojans and the Wolverines play with top efficiency. Michigan is obviously one of the best when it comes to offense, sitting atop the country in effective field goal percentage and top-5 in efficiency. USC isn’t that far off, running 63rd and 38th, respectively. Michigan is just as elite defensively as it is on the other end of the floor, but there should be no shortage of possessions in this game. With both teams being top-100 in free throw rate (USC is #1 nationally in this metric), we could see ample trips to the free throw line, which only helps our cause. 

Despite the heavy under trend on high totals this year, Michigan’s games are 4-2 to the over with totals of 160 or higher, including 2-1 with totals of at least 165. USC’s games are 1-1 with a total north of 160 and 8-4 to the over in its Division 1 matchups. I like points here. 

USC vs Michigan prediction: Over 168.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 169.5.

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