Utah Utes vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/10/26

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The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday in Kansas City with a 4-pack of games between those at the bottom of the conference standings. Among them will be a #9 vs #16 battle between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Utah Utes. Winners in 6 of their last 8 games, including victories over Kansas and BYU, the Bearcats have been one of the hotter teams in the country of late. Their calling card is their tenacious defense, which sits 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency over the course of the entire season (BartTorvik), but their offense has woken up in a major way of late, sitting 24th in efficiency over the last month while knocking down 43% of premier shots. 

Utah’s season has been forgettable to say the least. The Utes are just 10-21 this season and 2-16 in the Big 12, with their only wins being over TCU at home and West Virginia on the road. They played the Bearcats once this season – on the road – and were actually competitive thanks to 16 offensive rebounds and 9 made threes. However, I consider the former an anomaly, as the Utes are 223rd nationally and 14th in conference in offensive rebounding rate, while Cincinnati is top-40 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Moreover, the Utes only made 38% of two-point attempts in that game. 

Despite a somewhat solid showing in their only regular season meeting, there’s no reason for me to put any faith in Utah in this matchup. They have lost 4 games in a row by 13+, and they don’t do much well aside from limit perimeter shots. I’m not sure how much that’s going to help them against a Cincinnati offense that has been very strong in the mid-range and in post-ups – where Utah is 23rd percentile or worse defensively this season (Hoop-Explorer). 

Utah vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11. 

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