Vanderbilt Commodores vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/20/26

The Vanderbilt Commodores were riding high as one of the final remaining undefeated teams in the country going into last week, but then they lost at Texas 80-64 on Wednesday and followed that up with a 98-94 loss at home to Florida on Saturday. The Commodores were decimated on the boards in both games, losing the rebounding battle 42-24 against the Longhorns and 40-26 against the Gators, and their defense was lackluster as well. Texas scored 1.21 points per possession, while Florida finished with 1.35 points per possession on Vandy’s home floor.

The ‘Dores will look to get back to their winning ways on Tuesday, but their defense and rebounding prowess will be tested again when they travel to Bud Walton Arena to play the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have lost 2 of their last 3, but have yet to lose a home game since February 8th of last year. Their notable wins at home this season came against Louisville, Tennessee and South Carolina, as they average the 4th-most points at home in the country (97.4) on a 58.7% effective field goal percentage. 

I expect it to be another long night for Vandy on the glass. The Commodores are dead last in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate, and they are 9th in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Moreover, their two-point defense has been putrid against conference opponents, specifically in the mid-range and in the paint. If I were to pick against Arkansas at home, I would need it to be with a team that I know can neutralize the Hogs on the glass, and Vanderbilt is not that. Arkansas is a machine at home of late, boasting a 7-3 ATS mark as a home favorite in their last 10 outings, as well as 6-1 ATS mark as a home favorite off a loss under Coach Calipari. The statistical and situational handicaps align here, so it’s Arkansas or pass for me in this SEC showdown. Give me the cheap money line price, but I don’t mind laying up to 2.5 points with the Hogs here.

Vanderbilt vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks ML (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5 on the spread.

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