Vanderbilt Commodores vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/07/26

On the heels of a dramatic 89-86 overtime win at Ole Miss on Tuesday, the Vanderbilt Commodores will make the short trip to Knoxville to play their rivals in the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday afternoon. It will be Vandy’s 3rd straight road game, as well as a revenge game after they dropped the first meeting at home in Nashville 69-65 and were held to just 1.03 points per possession in the process. Per Haslametrics, it was Vandy’s 2nd-worst offensive showing in conference play, while it was Tennessee’s best defensive performance against SEC opponents.

Vandy has lost some of their steam. They started the season 16-0 overall and 3-0 in the SEC, but since suffering their first loss of the year at Texas, they have been a .500 club – going 7-7 over their last 14 games. Further, they are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Honestly, they could easily be 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in that stretch given how they played at Ole Miss and the narrow 8-point victory over Georgia when laying -7.5. Coming into this contest, the Commodores are 348th nationally in Haslametrics’ Momentum, mostly bogged down by a defense that is 359th in that regard. It makes sense considering Vanderbilt is 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 229th in effective field goal percentage allowed since February 1 per BartTorvik.

Tennessee is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, which has been a weakness of Vanderbilt all year long and showed in the first meeting when the Vols pulled down 14 offensive rebounds. Furthermore, Tennessee boasts a top-15 home defense per BartTorvik’s adjusted efficiency, holding opponents to a 45.1% effective field goal percentage in their home gym. That bodes well for the Vols in this contest considering there has been a decent drop-off in Vandy’s offensive efficiency when playing on the road in conference. Given Vandy’s road inconsistencies and questionable current form, I don’t see a win or a cover for the ‘Dores in this revenge game. Lay it with the Vols. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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