Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/14/26

The undefeated Vanderbilt Commodores will travel to Austin to play the Texas Longhorns on Wednesday night, aiming to keep their perfect season going. They come into this matchup off an 84-73 home win against LSU, which came on the heels of an impressive 96-90 home win over Alabama. Vandy is cruising and has excelled on both ends of the floor, ranking top-12 in effective field goal percentage and adjusted efficiency both offensively and defensively. Meanwhile, Texas comes into this contest off a road win at Alabama 92-88. The ‘Horns scored 1.29 points per possession and controlled the glass in the win.

Coming off their biggest win of the year, I am pessimistic about the Longhorns’ chances tonight against a highly-efficient Commodore squad – mostly because of their defensive inefficiencies. They are dead last in the SEC in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, surrendering at least 85 points in all of its conference games. Furthermore, they leave a bit to be desired defensively against rolling big men, inside-out sets, and pick-and-pops, which are all places Vanderbilt excels offensively. Not to mention Texas’ poor defense at the rim, where it lacks shot blockers outside of Matas Vokietaitis – who has a hard time staying on the floor for prolonged periods of time due to foul trouble.

On the other end of the floor, I have a hard time seeing Texas score as efficiently as it did at Alabama over the weekend. Vandy is much better defensively than Bama, and the Longhorns have not fared well against their top defensive opponents. In fact, in 4 games against top-20 defenses (per KenPom’s metrics), the Longhorns are 0-4, losing by an average of 14 points per game. In case you are wondering, Vanderbilt’s production doesn’t really drop off in true road games, as the ‘Dores are still top-25 on both sides of the ball with a perfect 4-0 record and a double-digit average margin of victory in those games. It’s Vandy or pass for me in this one. 

Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction: Vanderbilt -4.5 (-118) available at the time of publishing. Playable -6. 

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