Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/13/26

The Virginia Cavaliers will travel to the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville to take on the Cardinals in an ACC showdown on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are 14-2 overall and 3-1 in conference while in the midst of a 3-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 12-4 overall and 2-2 in conference, having lost 2 of their last 3. This will be their 3rd straight game at home, which is typically a spot I like to play on, but Louisville could be without 2 of its best guards in Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell on Tuesday. 

Isaac McKneely will be called upon to lead the Louisville offense against his former team, but I don’t see it being enough if the Cards are going to be without both Brown and Conwell. Even if they are without just 1 of those 2 guards, it’s going to be a challenge to score consistently against this Virginia defense – a unit that is 4th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive field goal percentage. For what it’s worth, the Cavaliers are #1 in the ACC in both of those metrics so far, and they have outperformed defensive expectations in 5 straight outings according to Haslametrics. 

Virginia hasn’t found much consistency from the perimeter in conference play, but the Cavaliers have a handful of shooters that connect on at least 37% of their three-point shots.They’ve shown their offensive upside away from home in games against Texas, Dayton and NC State, and I expect that upside to show against a Louisville defense that has underperformed against most of its top offensive opponents. Give me Virginia.

Virginia vs Louisville best bet: Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 (-110) widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to +1.5. 

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