Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Virginia Tech Hokies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/10/26

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The ACC Tournament tips off in Charlotte on Tuesday with a 3-pack of games in which the #10 through #15 seeds will play each other. Remember, those who finished in the bottom 3 of the conference are not part of the postseason festivities, sorry Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech. The final game of the day is a #12 vs #13 matchup between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Wake Forest Demon Deacons, which will be the 3rd time these teams see each other this season. Let’s break this one down.

In the first meeting, the Hokies lost 81-78 in Winston-Salem, but maybe they deserve some grace for that result. They were off a 3OT win over rival Virginia earlier that week, while it was the final game Tobi Lawal missed due to injury. The Hokies committed 19 turnovers in that contest and gave up 13 offensive rebounds, which ultimately are the reasons they lost. The 3-point margin of defeat is somewhat impressive given the turnover issues, but it makes sense when you see Wake shot just 29% on their 24 perimeter attempts. 

In the second meeting just a few weeks ago, Virginia Tech left no doubt in an 82-63 victory. Wake was without Nate Calmese, who led the Deacons with 25 points and 7 assists in the first meeting, while having Lawal in the lineup made an impact – as he dropped 17 points on 6-of-7 from two-point range with 9 rebounds. The Hokies erupted for 1.35 points per possession, knocking down 39% of triples and 60% of shots inside the arc. More importantly, they turned the ball over just 5 times in the rematch at home. Wake Forest shot just 20% on 30 perimeter attempts this time around, which obviously isn’t going to cut it against a Tech offense that can heat up from range. 

It’s easy to compare the results from the final month or so of the regular season and come away thinking Wake is in better form. That said, while the ‘Deacs have won more games than the Hokies since January 31st, Virginia Tech had a tougher stretch of opponents since then – having played 6 top-40 teams and 4 top-30 teams (KenPom). Despite their 3-6 SU record in that span, the Hokies have been just fine against the number, covering in 6 of those contests. 

Calmese is out for the season, so Wake Forest will be without their floor general and best shooter once again in this contest. Without him, I’m not convinced the Deacons have the offensive upside to win this matchup, especially if the Hokies are knocking down shots. I also can’t get that 19-turnover performance out of my head. How does a healthy Wake team not beat a Lawal-less Tech team by more in that spot at home with 19 Hokies giveaways?   

The Deacons had some admirable performances against Michigan and Texas Tech early in the season, but that version of the team is long gone, in my opinion. The version of Wake Forest that lost on the road at Pitt and Boston College is what you’re getting now, and I’m simply not very inspired by it. 

Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech best bet: Virginia Tech Hokies ML (-134) at the time of publishing. Playable to -150 or -3. 

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