West Virginia Mountaineers vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/02/26

The West Virginia Mountaineers will travel to Ames, Iowa to play the Iowa State Cyclones in their Big 12 conference opener on Friday. WVU ended non-conference play 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS, but its only win over a top-200 team came at home against 7-7 Pitt. The Mountaineers’ 4 losses came against Clemson, Xavier, Wake Forest, and Ohio State, which are all top-125 teams per KenPom – but none of them are top-30 per KenPom’s metrics. 

Iowa State is one of the few remaining undefeated teams at 13-0, which includes arguably the biggest win of the year – an 81-58 domination of the Purdue Boilermakers on their own home floor. The Cyclones are highly efficient on both ends of the floor, especially within the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. They average over 92 points per game and home, with a 62.4% home effective field goal percentage is top-20 nationally. On the other end of the floor, the ‘Clones rank top-4 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and Evan Miya, and they are in the 99th percentile in defensive rating according to CBB Analytics. Moreover, they lead the country in turnover rate, forcing turnovers on over a quarter of opposing possessions. 

With a strength of schedule that ranks bottom-5 nationally, West Virginia has not played a team as strong as Iowa State on either end of the floor, nor have the Mountaineers even played a true road game yet this season – as hard as that is to believe. Not to mention, they have not played since December 22, while the Cyclones were able to get back into a groove post-holidays with a game on Monday. Metrics say West Virginia is top-100 on both sides of the court in terms of efficiency, but what I see is an analytical profile that is inflated given 6 of WVU’s 13 games came against teams that rank 300th or worse. All signs point to an Iowa State blowout win. 

West Virginia vs Iowa State prediction: Cyclones -16.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -18.5. 

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