Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/13/26

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The Big Ten Tournament is moving into the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the most intriguing games on the slate comes in the form of a matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini from Chicago. Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the conference at the moment, ending the season with a flourish by dropping 97 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Badgers have 14 wins in their last 17 games dating back to January 6, and that stretch included victories over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, UCLA and this same Illinois team in Champaign on February 10. With that in mind, even though it would be understandable to target Illinois to exact a bit of revenge in this spot, I can’t get there with laying nearly 3 full possessions with the Illini against an offense of Wisconsin’s calendar.

This is not a matchup that should feature much defense, and that sort of game script should play into how Wisconsin wants to attack this contest. The Badgers are a threat to knock down 15 or more threes in any game they play, and we saw them hit 16 threes and shoot over 40% from downtown in the first meeting one month ago. Illinois does a fairly good job in terms of limiting opponents inside the arc, but the Illini are ranked 255th in 3-point rate allowed on defense, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers are able to attempt 40 threes in this one. That level of variance is something I generally like betting with an underdog, especially in a game where both teams are going to attempt a ton of threes and we should see plenty of possessions. Furthermore, it’s also important to mention that Illinois is dealing with a couple of key injury and/or illness questions heading into this one, including freshman phenom Keaton Wagler (back spasms) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (flu). This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, and I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog.

Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction: Wisconsin +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.