Xavier Musketeers vs Connecticut Huskies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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The Big East tournament keeps on rolling along on Thursday with a matchup that appears to be pretty lopsided on paper. On one side, the Xavier Musketeers are nearing the end of a disappointing season, but they still were able to knock off Marquette as a short underdog on Wednesday. Conversely, the UConn Huskies squandered their chance to capture the Big East regular season title last Saturday when they lost to Marquette in a game that saw head coach Dan Hurley get ejected and UConn fall short in a furious comeback attempt late in the second half. While it’s not my favorite play on the board on Thursday, we do have a clear bounce-back spot on our hands in favor of UConn, and I intend to take advantage.

Historically, Hurley’s team has responded well when coming off a loss, and that trend has continued into this season. Most recently, the Huskies followed up a disastrous loss at home to Creighton by picking up a much-needed win at Villanova, before demolishing St. John’s at home a few days later. We can expect a similar result in this matchup, especially given the series history between these programs this season. UConn has won both meetings by massive margins, with the Huskies defeating Xavier by 23 and 32 points respectively. The Musketeers are also a very poor defensive team, which sets up a spot for UConn’s offense to get hot from beyond the arc and attack the paint against a unit that is outside the top 300 in 2-point percentage allowed (BartTorvik). Look for UConn to establish an early lead and run away with this one in the second half.

Xavier vs UConn prediction: UConn -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn -15