Xavier Musketeers vs Providence Friars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/24/26

The forgettable season continues for Xavier, who dropped their 11th conference game and 4th game in 5 outings on Saturday at Butler. Sitting under .500 and tied for 2nd-worst in the Big East, the Musketeers will head to Rhode Island to play the Providence Friars on Tuesday – another team tied for 2nd-worst in the conference. That said, Providence is coming into this contest off a win at DePaul, which was their 2nd road win of the season, and they’re seeking some revenge over the Musketeers – who beat them in Cincinnati 97-84 in early January. Xavier hit 12 threes and turned it over just 4 times in that game.

Speaking of Xavier threes, after a 3-game dry spell, the Musketeers are back to firing away from distance like they were just after New Year’s Day. They’ve taken at least 23 threes in 3 straight games – at least 32 twice – and have made at least 10 in each of those games. Providence will give up plenty of perimeter looks, as they showed in the first meeting when Xavier attempted 30 of them. 

The Musketeers are shooting 38.2% from three-point range over their last 5 games, and there is absolutely no drop off in their perimeter shot-making away from home considering they are shooting exactly 36.6% from distance both at home and on the road according to TeamRankings. The Friars will get their fair share of threes up as well, as they’ve attempted at least 20 of them in 11 of 14 games since January 1st and attempted 32 of them in the first meeting – though they only made 8. They should produce a better result this time around considering they are shooting 37% in all home games and right around that over their last 5 games. 

In addition to an abundance of threes, expect some pace in this game, as Xavier and Providence are 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the Big East in adjusted tempo and top-4 in average possession length. On paper, Providence has slowed it down a bit recently compared to their seasonlong pace numbers, but I believe that is a product of who they have played over the last 5 games rather than a change in style. The Friars have shown a desire to run with their fast-paced opponents all year long, and I don’t know why that trend would end here. 

Xavier vs Providence prediction: Over 170.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 171.5. 

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