College Football Futures

This is a shot in the dark compared to some of the favorites on the board, but it’s an educated wager on a quarterback that I could see making a major leap this fall. Devon Dampier electrified the Mountain West at New Mexico a season ago, racking up 31 total touchdowns (including a whopping 19 touchdowns on the ground) in a season that saw him take a major step forward from his freshman campaign.

Now, the 3rd-year starter steps into a promising situation with a Utah team that handed the reins over to former New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, a respected offensive mind and a surefire upgrade from what the Utes had last season. The Utes also upgraded their weapons on the perimeter via the transfer portal and get a pretty favorable schedule compared to a few other contenders in the Big 12. I’ve got Utah favored in 11 games and if the Utes are able to navigate their way through a couple of tricky conference games, they should certainly find themselves in the Big 12 title game come Championship Weekend. That alone gives this 60-1 ticket a ton of value, so Dampier is worth a sprinkle at this number.

It’s no secret that the Heisman Trophy award is primarily dominated by quarterbacks. In fact, QBs have dominated this award in this century with 18 Heisman winners lining up under center. Other positions have generally been out of luck in recent memory, including wide receivers, but that was not the case last season with Hunter taking home the award for Colorado. However, this is an award that also typically goes to the quarterback on a team in contention for a national title, and that’s exactly what we have with Cade Klubnik at Clemson.

It’s no surprise that Klubnik’s odds to win this award have shortened a bit over the summer. After all, the 4th-year quarterback is one of the most experienced college QBs in the nation and is stepping into a perfect situation in what will be his 3rd season as the starter at Clemson. The Tigers are absolutely loaded and Dabo Swinney has finally added skill position talent in the transfer portal to bolster this roster in their pursuit of another ACC title and College Football Playoff berth. Klubnik was tremendous during the 2nd half of last season, culminating in an excellent performance on the road in a loss to Texas in the College Football Playoff. With an improved offensive line and a terrific group of wide receivers, Klubnik should be able to post his best season yet in Death Valley.

Ultimately, I have Clemson winning the ACC and being in the hunt to secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. If things go according to plan for Swinney’s group, it’s hard not to see Klubnik as one of the Heisman Trophy favorites heading into Championship Weekend. Klubnik has a chance to shine on the biggest stage in Week 1 against fellow Heisman hopeful Garrett Nussmeier on the other side, and the ACC schedule features a number of matchups against the likes of SMU, Georgia Tech and Louisville, where one of the best quarterbacks in the nation should be able to build up his statistical profile in wins over quality opponents. All things considered, I’ll take a stab on Klubnik to hoist the Heisman Trophy come December.

First, make sure you always shop around for futures odds. From what I can find, +4000 is the best number in the market as of Sunday, August 3, and it’s as low as +3000 at some books. I know a bet at +4000 isn’t necessarily what you would consider a “longshot” by definition, but relative to the rest of the field, it at least feels like a “longer” shot with solid value based on everything Texas A&M has going for it coming into the season. The Aggies are top 10 nationally in overall returning production, and 1 of only 6 teams that have at least 70% of their 2024 production back on both sides of the ball.

Marcell Reed likely steps into a full-time starting role and will play behind an offensive line that returns all 5 of its starters to go along with an incoming top 35 overall 5-star recruit. Not many quarterbacks have that luxury in the transfer portal era. Reed is a dual-threat quarterback and will lead a rushing attack that should give opposing defenses fits, considering its entire running back room returns, namely Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels and Rueben Owens. As a passer, Reed left much to be desired at times, but Mike Elko brought in a handful of new pass-catching options for him, including highly sought NC State transfer KC Concepcion, Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and 5-star freshman Jerome Myles. On paper, this unit feels vastly improved from last year.

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has 74% of its production back from a unit that was top 25 in success rate, havoc rate, and points allowed per opposing scoring opportunity in 2024. There is certainly plenty of room for this unit to improve, but you can see the vision. Another year in the defensive-minded Elko’s system should pay dividends for a group returning so much talent, in addition to its incoming Top 10 recruiting class and top 12 transfer portal class.

So what’s the catch then? Why are the Aggies as long as 40/1 with so much supposed talent on the roster? It’s because of their schedule. They have to play Notre Dame, LSU and Texas on the road, and the trip to LSU is immediately following their trip to Arkansas. Also, Texas A&M is one of the few power conference teams I found with 3 straight road games at any point this season, even if 2 of them should be more than winnable. It doesn’t get easier at home, either, as the Aggies welcome Auburn, Florida and South Carolina to Kyle Field, 2 of whom they lost to last year. This feels like a team with 10-2 upside that can sneak into the CFP as an at-large bid if everything goes right on the field, but the floor could be as low as 6-6. I’ll take a shot on the upside; buyer beware.

Compared to the top of the board, Alabama being listed longer than +1000 feels like an appropriate value for how high its ceiling can be. Like Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia, the Crimson Tide will break in a new starting quarterback this season. Some questioned who the new starter will be throughout the offseason, but it has always felt like Ty Simpson’s job to lose. Recently acquired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb even said after the spring game that if he had to pick a starter then, it would have been Simpson. Yet, as of July 31, Grubb and Kalen DeBoer have not officially named their starting quarterback.

Presumably, redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and 5-star freshman and top-3 overall recruit Keelon Russell are pushing Simpson for the starting role, but the refusal to officially name a starter may be a bit of “coachspeak” in a sense, to ensure Simpson keeps his foot down in practice and doesn’t get complacent. He has shown flashes of above-average accuracy and underrated athleticism in his limited sample size, and maybe most importantly, command of the offense – albeit in blowout games in which the result was all but determined.

If he can consistently provide highly accurate throws in more competitive settings, his upside certainly could be close to, if not higher than, Jalen Milroe’s in DeBoer’s offense. He doesn’t have to be as good a runner as Milroe if he’s a more reliable passer downfield. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big “if,” but this bet on Alabama isn’t so much about the quarterback position as it is everything else surrounding it.

On paper, this Crimson Tide roster is effectively loaded. Not only did DeBoer bring in a top-3 recruiting class, but he paired it with a top-25 transfer portal class and an already top-30 roster in overall returning production. While it is just barely inside the top 60 in returning offensive production, much of that has to do with the departures of Milroe and Justice Haynes (transferred to Michigan), who accounted for 27 of the team’s 41 rushing touchdowns. Trust me, there is still plenty to like about what returns to Tuscaloosa this year.

The Tide should have one of the better offensive lines in the country with anchors Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford returning at LT and C, respectively – 2 of the SEC’s best 35 pass blockers a year ago. They also maintained Jaeden Roberts on the interior, one of Alabama’s better run blockers. Speaking of the run game, Jam Miller is back and should get a fair share of the nearly 250 vacant carries Milroe and Haynes left, but Richard Young and Daniell Hill were both top 10 backs in their respective recruiting classes and certainly should have ample opportunities to prove their worth.

Out wide, Alabama’s receiver group is spearheaded by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard’s returns after collectively putting up over 1,600 yards with 13 total touchdowns in 2024. This year, the receiver group could turn into somewhat of a 3-headed monster reminiscent of DeBoer’s Washington team just a couple of years ago, with the addition of Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, a redshirt junior who tallied over 600 yards with 5 touchdowns for the Hurricanes last season.

On the other side of the ball, Alabama should be very dangerous. The Tide are top 15 in returning defensive talent, bringing back nearly 70% of production from a unit that was top 10 in PPA and success rate allowed in 2024. In fact, as many as 13 players with at least 200 snaps were retained by DeBoer. Players like Tim Smith, Jihaad Campbell and Malachi Moore will certainly be missed, but LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Justin Jefferson, Bray Hubbard and Deontae Lawson were among the best defenders in the SEC last season, and provide the Tide with a solid defensive floor going into this year, especially with a year in defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s system under their belts.

There are a few aspects of Alabama’s schedule that are conducive to the Tide playing to their ceiling this year. First, they will not have to play on the road in back-to-back weeks at any point. This is always the first thing I look for in a schedule. Second, the Tide have bye weeks before their trip to Georgia and their home game against LSU, arguably their 2 biggest games of the season. Third, 4 of Alabama’s final 6 games are at home, with the only 2 road trips being to South Carolina and in-state rival Auburn — each of which presents its own unique set of challenges.

Early-season showdowns against non-conference foes like Florida State and Wisconsin are fun on paper and were thought to be more of a challenge when they were scheduled, but Alabama is a few tiers above the present-day versions of those programs. All things considered, assuming Simpson is at the very least an average SEC quarterback, the combination of Alabama’s roster and schedule presents a floor that feels like 8-4 at worst with a ceiling as high as 11-1 or 12-0. Coach DeBoer has already been to the national championship with a program that has a fraction of the football resources Alabama has, so I trust that he is not only capable of leading a roster of this talent level to the title game, but winning it in the process.