The Navy Midshipmen are probably thankful to be home. They haven’t played in front of their home fans since Week 1, a run that includes three straight road games separated by a bye in Week 3. Further, they’re still searching for their first win over an FBS team. The Middies are currently listed as favorites ahead of this American Conference showdown with Tulsa, but Navy is 0-4 ATS – three of those failed covers were in the favorite role.
As is traditionally the case with service academies, Navy’s offense is heavily centered around the run, sitting fourth in rush rate outside of garbage time. They’re pretty effective on the ground, but that’s all they have, as this year’s quarterbacks are nowhere near what Blake Horvath was as a playmaker and passer last year for the Midshipmen.
The weakest part of Tulsa’s defense is their pass defense; the Golden Hurricane are strong against the run. In fact, against a top-75 strength of schedule (Sagarin), they rank top-30 in PPA per rush, rush explosiveness, standard downs PPA and line yards allowed, while they’re 40th in rush success rate allowed and just outside the top 50 in stuff rate.
On the other side of the ball, Tulsa’s quarterback situation isn’t ideal from a ball-security perspective. Baylor Hayes has had multiple turnover-worth plays in two of his three starts when healthy, but I’m not sure Navy’s defense is built to exploit those issues. The Midshipmen are 111th in havoc generated, and their secondary is suspect – ranking outside the top 110 in PPA per pass, passing success and passing explosiveness.
If Tulsa can stop the run effectively and pass all over Navy’s defense, the Golden Hurricane are going to put themselves in great position to win this game outright. That’s before we even factor in the fact that Tulsa has two extra days of rest to prepare for this game, while Navy had to travel out to altitude and back after a loss at Air Force last week. I’m going to take the points here since they’re being offered, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Navy’s struggles against FBS competition continue in a Tulsa road win.
Tulsa vs Navy prediction: Tulsa +2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to pk (+100).
