College Football Week 9 Best Bets: Friday, October 30
Halloween weekend is almost here, as is the weekend portion of the Week 9 college football slate. Before the tricks and treats of Saturday's card, we will have three games on Friday to enjoy, headlined by a Big 12 matchup between Baylor and UCF. It’s a more abbreviated Friday card than normal, but I still found an angle worth betting, as I aim to improve on the five straight Friday CFB best bets I’ve cashed over the last four weeks, including a pair of picks in Week 8.
Let’s get into the Week 9 Friday CFB best bet, and don’t forget the rest of our CFB predictions for tips and analysis on every FBS game throughout the season.
CFB Week 9 Friday Best Bet: Baylor Bears +1.5 over UCF Knights (-118)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -1 (-110) or ML -125.
Another week, another play on a big situational spot in college football, this time in Orlando, Florida, where the Baylor Bears meet a UCF Knights team fresh off a field-storming, double-overtime upset of #2 BYU – who had a field-storming upset of their own at home over Notre Dame the week prior. It was a great performance all around for the Knights, who outgained the Cougars 463-373, but it’s difficult to replicate that effort two weeks in a row.
On the other side of this matchup, Baylor fired head coach Dave Aranda after the Bears lost to Kansas last week. It was probably long overdue; a fresh face should succeed at Baylor, and I actually really like DC Joe Klanderman filling in as interim head coach. While he hasn’t been a head coach at the collegiate level, he was part of the North Dakota State staff a decade ago and also coached on Kansas State’s staff when the Wildcats were competing for conference titles.
Under Klanderman, the Bears’ defense is top-25 in scoring, red-zone touchdown rate and yards per play allowed. Over the last six weeks, Baylor ranks top-30 in a handful of advanced defensive metrics including PPA per play, success rate, havoc generated and points per scoring opportunity allowed outside of garbage time, giving the Bears with the better defense in this matchup. Baylor is particularly good against the run, sitting 22nd in rush yards per game and 13th in yards per attempt allowed (CFBStats), which is where UCF wants to attack first. There could be some weather in central Florida on Saturday as well, increasing the importance of that defensive advantage Baylor possesses.
One thing Klanderman stressed to the media this week is that he hopes to provide a jolt of energy that he believes the Bears desperately need. He also stressed their goals still lie ahead of them. That sounds like a coach a team can rally around, and it all starts in Orlando against a UCF team in a huge let-down spot.
Get a play on the total in our Baylor vs UCF prediction
