College Football Week 8 Best Bets: Saturday, October 24

The menu in Week 8 of the college football regular season may not jump off the page as one that hosts the most headline matchups, but there’s still plenty of anticipation surrounding this card. The day begins with a battle of Tigers in LSU vs Auburn and Big Noon Kickoff's Indiana vs Michigan, while we get a pair of ranked matchups in Ole Miss vs Texas and Houston vs Utah under the lights. 

Ahead of the action, here are my three college football best bets for Saturday of the Week 8 slate. For more betting analysis, get our CFB picks for every FBS game this week and beyond.

CFB Week 8 Best Bet: North Texas Mean Green ML over Navy Midshipmen (-140)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -160 or -3 (-115). 

This UNT offense hasn’t skipped a beat following the departure of its playmakers and coach in the offseason. Rather, the Mean Green are fourth nationally in scoring (42.2 ppg) and third in total offense (533.8 ypg), and they’re very efficient in their process. UNT sits second in PPA per play, 13th in success rate and fifth in points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time over the last six weeks, while they are eighth in yards per play, top-10 in red-zone offense and top-25 on both standard and passing downs. No matter how you slice it, the Mean Green can move the ball and put up points, whether it be on the ground (22nd in PPA per rush) or through the air (third in PPA per rush). 

North Texas comes into this game fresh off a bye, ready to make a charge for the conference title crown after five straight 35-point performances and three straight 45-point performances. That week off alleviates some of the effect of playing on the road, as does the fact that their hosts, the Navy Midshipmen, have played four of their last five games on the road – including three of the four since their mid-September bye. Those recent road trips included journeys to Alabama, Colorado and Texas, and each of their last four games were one-score results too, with the Midshipmen emerging victorious just once. Needless to say, I’m expecting some fatigue here from Navy. 

The Midshipmen have firepower on the ground, but that’s pretty much it. There’s not much through the air, and there’s even less to hang their hat on defensively – where they are 90th in scoring and outside the top 55 in total defense. Moveover, this defense is poor on third downs and through the air, which is not ideal against a UNT offense this good. The Middies may score a few times, but I don’t see them scoring enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies and this situational disadvantage. To add a cherry on top, you could argue this is a bit of a lookahead spot for Navy, as they have a neutral-site game with Notre Dame on deck after losing their third conference game in disappointing fashion.

Read our full North Texas vs Navy prediction

CFB Week 8 Best Bet: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to pk. 

As of Friday afternoon, Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor and RB Fluff Bothwell are both still listed as questionable. Regardless of their status, I’m fading Oklahoma here. Aside from their collective absences, I’m not sure what the Sooners have done to merit laying a field goal or more on the road. Sure, they have an edge defensively, but now 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, clearly that stop-unit can’t bear all the weight. OU QB John Mateer has been a disappointment, to put it lightly. He has the second-most interceptions and most turnover-worthy plays in the SEC, while he’s bottom-10 in both marks nationally. To make matters worse, two starters on Oklahoma’s line are out, as is WR Trell Harris, while a few more pieces are either doubtful or questionable – including DB Eli Bowen. 

Following their third loss in five games, Oklahoma’s postseason hopes and season goals are effectively over considering the path that remains and the product they’ve put forth thus far. Don’t forget, Mateer and company put up just 14 points at home against New Mexico, and their comeback win over Texas was fueled more by an Arch Manning pick-six than anything. 

It’s a leap of faith making this click without certainty regarding Taylor or Bothwell, but I’m playing this regardless, so why not try to get ahead of positive news? If either play, we will probably steal some CLV. If both play, the Bulldogs will probably flip to favorites. A risk worth taking given the spot in which the Sooners find themselves. 

Get a pick on the total of this SEC showdown in our Oklahoma vs Mississippi State prediction

CFB Week 8 Best Bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys team total over 34.5 vs Colorado Buffaloes (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -125.

After investing in North Texas, I’m coincidentally investing in their former coach, quarterback and other playmakers including RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young off a tough loss in Houston last week. With top-25 marks in scoring, total offense, PPA per play, success rate, yards per play, scoring opportunities and explosive plays, the Pokes can score with the likes of anyone. QB Drew Mestemaker has been a revelation under, leading one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country – one that sits 15th in PPA per pass and fifth in success rate outside of garbage time over the last six weeks.

Colorado’s defensive metrics aren’t bad, but they haven’t seen many offenses that are of OK State’s ilk. Northwestern is the only team on Colorado’s schedule thus far with similar passing-efficiency numbers to Oklahoma State’s, and the Wildcats scored 41 in that game. Plus, the Buffaloes love to play fast, which creates more possessions for OK State to score. For reference, Colorado ranks 115th in non-garbage-time scoring opportunities in the last six weeks, while they are 116th in red-zone opportunities surrendered this season.

The Cowboys failed to surpass 35 points for the first time since Week 1 in their loss to Houston, but they still put up 32. It was their fifth straight game with at least 32 points, and they scored at least 39 in each of the other four. I’m not sure I love laying double digits after the Pokes’ Week 7 loss, but I don’t see how the Buffs stop them from scoring. 

Now get our CFB anytime touchdown scorer best bets for Saturday's Week 8 slate after our expert went 3-0 last week!