College Football Week 8 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks

Following so many upsets last week, handicapping the Week 8 college football card posed some challenges in the side and totals markets. Luckily for us, there are other markets to attack when the juice isn’t worth the squeeze on spreads, money lines and over/unders. 

After a perfect 3-0 sweep of my Week 7 CFB player props, I’m excited to continue the momentum with three more selections on Saturday’s Week 8 card. Let’s get right into it before you check out Ricky Dimon’s Week 8 CFB touchdown selections, after he too went 3-0 in Week 7. 

CFB Week 8 Player Prop: Malachi Toney (MIA) longest reception over 29.5 yards (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -125 at this number or up to 34.5 (+100).

This line just feels a little off. Pitt’s secondary is the weakest unit on the Panthers defense, sitting outside the top 70 in PPA per pass allowed since Week 2 (CollegeFootballData). Not only that, but the Panthers give up explosive passes at one of the highest rates in the country. In the last six weeks, they’re 132nd in that regard, while they rank bottom-20 nationally in passes of at least 20 yards allowed (CFBStats). That includes 13 passes of at least 30 yards (124th) and eight passes of at least 40 yards (132nd). It goes without saying that arguably the best receiver in the country, save Jeremiah Smith, can exploit this secondary.

Malachi Toney has caught at least one 30-yard pass in four out of Miami’s six games, and one of the other two resulted in a longest reception of 28 yards. He’s a constant downfield threat, averaging over 15 yards per reception, while he leads the ACC and ranks fourth nationally in yards per route run (4.55). Look for him to do damage both in terms of route running and yards after the catch against a Pitt secondary that ranks 105th in yards per pass attempt surrendered.

Get our Pitt vs Miami prediction

CFB Week 8 Player Prop: Nyck Harbor (SC) over 3.5 receptions (+142)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +125.

Nyck Harbor is second on the team in targets with 37 – just one behind Mazeo Bennett – but he and LaNorris Sellers haven’t been on the same page. Some of it is certainly Harbor’s fault considering he leads the team in drops with five, but I give some blame to Sellers’ inaccuracy and some blame to the new play-calling, as well. Plus, if we’re being fair, three of his drops came against FCS Towson – he has just two against five FBS opponents. 

Harbor definitely has Sellers’ attention, he’s accumulated 21 targets over South Carolina’s last three games, including at least six in each contest. Unfortunately, only 11 of those turned into receptions and only 17 of his 37 total targets have been caught. There’s certainly room for improvement there, to say the least.

Coming out of the bye, I have to imagine OC Kendal Briles will have new ways to get Harbor the ball in high-percentage situations. Harbor is already getting the looks, they just have to be on time and caught. An extra week of practice and game-planning for Tennessee’s defense only helps, especially after a morale-boosting win at Florida – Harbor’s best game of the season. Look for the speedy wide out to build on that performance. 

Get our Tennessee vs South Carolina prediction, including a five-star best bet

CFB Week 8 Player Prop: Trinidad Chambliss (MISS) over 246.5 passing yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 254.5.

With a total in the mid-50s, oddsmakers expect this to be a higher-scoring game, and they expect Texas to take care of business at home – making this a perfect game script for Ole Miss’ passing game via QB Trinidad Chambliss. I’m not sure I agree with Texas taking care of business given their injuries and lack of offensive consistency, but I trust Ole Miss to score behind Chambliss. The Rebels signal-caller is one of, if not the best in the nation among the college ranks, and that’s without the added benefit of the opposition’s best pass-rusher being out. Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 249.5 (-110). 

Texas’ EDGE Colin Simmons will miss this game with an ankle sprain, meaning the Longhorns will be without the nation’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss. Simmons has more sacks than the rest of his team combined by at least a couple, so his absence will surely be felt. Chambliss will be the primary beneficiary of that, as he’ll have more time in the pocket to find his receivers down field. When kept clean, Chambliss is one of the best in the country, completing over 71% of his passes with more than 1,400 yards on 182 attempts per PFF. 

Chambliss hasn’t surpassed this number since prior to his early-October bye, but he went over this mark with ease against Louisville, LSU and Florida, tallying at least 298 yards in each contest. Meanwhile, he fell just six yards short last week in a 31-3 blowout of Missouri. Expecting a close, high-scoring game in Austin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chambliss flirt with 300 yards. 

Now check out our Week 8 CFB parlay with better than 10/1 odds!