Air Force Falcons vs Connecticut Huskies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/15/25

The Air Force Falcons and the UConn Huskies will meet in Connecticut on Saturday after a pair of impressive victories in Week 11. Air Force went to San Jose State and won outright as a 6.5-point underdog, holding what had been a high-powered Spartan offense to just 16 points at home despite the Falcons being outgained by 130+ yards. Meanwhile, UConn came through for us at home as 8.5-point underdogs against Duke. Not only did the Huskies cover, but they won outright in overtime, outgaining the Blue Devils 467-390. 

My numbers show a couple points of value on UConn at the current number of -7, but considering how the Huskies laid an egg at Rice after beating Boston College, I’m hesitant to lay the number here with the Huskies – especially considering Air Force hasn’t lost by more than 3 points in over a month. Instead, my focus is on the total, as I have a hard time seeing either defense limiting scoring in this matchup. 

The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the entire country. They are 123rd in scoring, allowing 33 points per game against FBS opponents, while sitting 133th in total defense – surrendering more than 450 yards per contest. Air Force has been especially bad against the pass, yielding 288.1 passing yards per game (134th) and 9.9 yards per pass attempt (136th) on the season as a whole. Not much has changed in recent weeks, as the Falcons are 111th in PPA per pass and 136th in passing downs PPA since Week 7. This should be music to the ears of UConn QB Joey Fagnano and the Huskies, as UConn has one of the best passing offenses in the country (believe it or not). In fact, The Huskies are 2nd in passing touchdowns, 3rd in total passing yards, and 18th in passer rating this season. 

On the other side of the ball, UConn’s run defense leaves a bit to be desired, which is a disaster against Air Force’s offense. Being that Air Force is a service academy, the Falcons run the ball at one of the top 3 rates in the country, and they are extremely efficient in doing so. Against a UConn defense that sits 110th in PPA per rush and 115th in standard downs PPA, Air Force should be able to move the ball at will.

It’s also worth mentioning that both of these defenses have been absolutely awful in the red zone. Opponents come away with points on over 90% of red-zone trips against both Air Force and UConn, which should pave the way for plenty of points considering these offenses are top-20 in red-zone frequency and top-35 in red-zone scoring percentage. The total is high for a reason here; expect plenty of points.

Air Force vs UConn prediction: Over 63.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 64.5. 

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