Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

Air Force heads into this game with a 34-23-1 series lead, although Navy won last season’s battle in Colorado Springs by a 34-7 count on Oct. 5, 2024. While this game doesn’t have the pageantry like Army-Navy does, it is still an important part of the run for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Air Force has won the past two trips to Annapolis, and four of the past five overall in the series. At Navy, Air Force is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past four meetings, while going 6-3 ATS in the past nine in the series since Oct. 1, 2016, too.

The Falcons lost 44-35 against Hawaii in the Springs last week. The defense wasn’t very good, but the offense was strong, posting 216 rushing yards, but also 278 passing yards, as QB Liam Szarka can sling it. He ran for a team-best 139 yards, too. That’s a wrinkle we haven’t seen from the Air Force offense in years past. However, the defense isn’t very good for USAFA. Navy is coming off a 21-13 win over Rice in a defensive slog, and while it is 4-0 SU, the Middies are just 2-2 ATS. The defense has allowed 23 or more points in two of the three games against FBS opponents, too. We could have a surprisingly high-scoring battle here, so if you’re a same-game parlay (SGP) bettor, keep that in mind. But, the best play is take Air Force plus the points, as they have the offense to pass its way back into the game should they trail. That’s something the Falcons haven’t had in recent seasons. Now, can the defense stop the Navy rushing attack?

Air Force +11.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.