Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/04/25

Air Force heads into this game with a 34-23-1 series lead, although Navy won last season’s battle in Colorado Springs by a 34-7 count on October 5, 2024. While this game doesn’t have the pageantry like Army-Navy does, it is still an important part of the run for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Air Force has won the past 2 trips to Annapolis, and 4 of the past 5 overall in the series. At Navy, Air Force is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 4 meetings, while going 6-3 ATS in the past 9 in the series since October 1, 2016.

The Falcons lost 44-35 against Hawaii in the Springs last week. The defense wasn’t very good, but the offense was strong, posting 216 rushing yards. They also accumulated 278 passing yards, as QB Liam Szarka can sling it. He ran for a team-best 139 yards, too. That’s a wrinkle we haven’t seen from the Air Force offense in years past. However, the defense isn’t very good for USAFA.

Navy is coming off a 21-13 win over Rice in a defensive slog, and while it is 4-0 SU, the Middies are just 2-2 ATS. The defense has allowed 23 or more points in 2 of the 3 games against FBS opponents, too. We could have a surprisingly high-scoring battle here, so if you’re a same-game parlay (SGP) bettor, keep that in mind. But, the best play is to take Air Force plus the points, as the Falcons have the offense to pass their way back into the game should they trail. That’s something they haven’t had in recent seasons. Now, can the defense stop the Navy rushing attack?

Air Force vs Navy prediction: Air Force Falcons +11.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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