Air Force Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/08/25

A pretty under the radar game in the Group of 5 on Saturday comes in the Mountain West, where the Air Force Falcons will travel to Northern California to take on the San Jose State Spartans. This is a game that is fairly crucial within the Mountain West, as San Jose State is looking to inset itself into the title game picture now that Boise State has a loss in league play and could be missing its starting quarterback for an extended period of time. And while this line has moved a bit since the open, I’m still inclined to lay the points with the favorite.

The Spartans were a team that I was pretty high on coming into the season, and while things didn’t go well for San Jose State in September thanks to a couple of losses to Central Michigan and Stanford by a combined 3 points, this is now a team that’s on the rise and one that I’m looking to back over the final month of this campaign. For starters, the vast majority of San Jose State’s losses have come by one score, with the Spartans actually having held a lead in the second half of all but one contest this season. The Spartans offense struggled mightily in the early going, but this is a unit that has been surging of late, with San Jose State racking up a combined 133 points over its last 4 games. This includes a pair of wins over New Mexico and Hawaii, a couple of sides that are clearly among the top 5 or 6 teams in the Mountain West. The task for Walker Eget and company should get easier on Saturday against an Air Force defense that is among the worst in football (130th in success rate allowed and 136th in EPA per play). On the other side of the ball, the Falcons should score some points on the Spartans defense (102nd in success rate allowed), but I don’t trust that they’ll be able to get enough stops to pull off an upset on the road in this one.

Air Force vs San Jose State prediction: San Jose State -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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