Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/27/25

As one of the premier matchups of not only a loaded Week 5 slate, but the entire college football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide head to Athens to play the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Alabama has recovered nicely from its embarrassing Week 1 loss at Florida State with a 73-0 win over UL Monroe and a 38-14 win over Wisconsin ahead of the mutual bye week shared with Georgia in Week 4. As for the ‘Dawgs, they are a perfect 3-0 entering this contest following their most recent win in which they beat Tennessee in thrilling fashion at Neyland Stadium 44-41. 

Kirby Smart should have added motivation to win this game, as he is currently 1-6 SU against the Tide as the head coach of Georgia. Most of those games were against Nick Saban, but Kalen DeBoer carried the tradition last year in a 41-34 win over the Bulldogs in T-Town. On the other side, DeBoer should be motivated to nip Alabama’s road woes in the bud, as the Tide are just 2-5 SU away from home under his leadership. However, oddly enough, Alabama’s wins over Georgia and at LSU last year were both on the heels of a week off – when DeBoer had extra time to prepare for his opponent. I’m not sure if you can draw anything tangible from that, but it’s interesting to point out nonetheless. 

Georgia hasn’t lost at home since 2019 against South Carolina, and when you combine the fact that Alabama has had trouble on the road under DeBoer, this number appears almost too short. However, I have this game projected around 1.5 points, which means I still see a bit of value on Alabama at this number. It’s a risky proposition considering how poor the Tide looked in Tallahassee, but I left Week 3 questioning how reliable Georgia’s defense is despite the Bulldog’s win at Tennessee. For reference, Georgia is 77th in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents, 72nd in standard down PPA allowed, and 94th in PPA per pass. Against Tennessee, Georgia surrendered nearly 500 yards, 371 of which were through the air, and were fortunate to overcome those deficiencies due to a missed game-winning field goal from the Volunteers. Simply put, I expect Alabama to move the ball against this defense consistently despite being on the road, especially now that Ty Simpson has had some time to settle in as the starting quarterback.

As someone who picked Alabama to win the SEC, this game is crucial to the conference race. The Tide’s performance against the Seminoles wasn’t comforting, but I’m going to stick with my preseason stance on Alabama and trust my projections. It also helps that ‘Bama expects to get running back Jam Miller and defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from injury ahead of this game. Give me the points; roll tide. 

Alabama vs Georgia prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.5 (-105).

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For a matchup between two programs that are known for having elite defenses, this has been a fairly high-scoring series in recent memory. Each of the previous six contests between the Tide and the Bulldogs have hit at least 51 points, and while those all don’t directly impact the outcome of this game, Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide continued the trend last year in a 41-34 victory over Georgia. 

The Bulldogs have regressed defensively to a point where they are elite in very few key defensive metrics. This season, Georgia has struggled on early downs outside of garbage time, and the ‘Dawgs have left a bit to be desired against the pass. Alabama has had its fair share of defensive issues as well, sitting outside the top 75 in PPA per play allowed despite two blowout wins in as many recent games. 

Given both defenses’ struggles with consistency on a play-to-play basis, I expect the offenses to control this game. Alabama sits top 25 in yards per play and PPA per play, while Georgia is inside the top 40 in the aforementioned metrics as well. Furthermore, both offenses average greater than 5 points per trip on their 6.3 trips per game inside the opposing 40-yard line. Look for fireworks in this matchup; take the over. 

Alabama vs Georgia prediction: Over 52.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 54 (-110).

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