Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/19/25

The 2025 College Football Playoff gets underway on Friday night with an SEC rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners from Norman. These teams met during the season when the Sooners notably beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa 23-21 despite being outgained 406-212 and converting just 3 of 13 third downs. Alabama’s 3 turnovers were the story, and Alabama’s blocked 36-yard field goal before halftime came into play, too. 

Alabama has not looked the part of late, ever since the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide took care of their business against FCS Eastern Illinois, but they almost squandered their CFP hopes in Auburn, being outgained by the Tigers 411-280 and converting just 4 of 17 third downs. The Tide followed that near loss up with an embarrassing showing in the SEC Championship against Georgia, a game in which they gained just 209 yards and were dealing with injuries to multiple key players. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is surging. Winners of 4 in a row and 5 of 6 since their loss to rival Texas, the Sooners enter this playoff game on home soil in better form, but there are still questions about the upside of this offense. The Sooners are 120th in PPA per play and 126th in success rate outside of garbage time since Week 9, which doesn’t instill much confidence in a game of this magnitude. 

This matchup could go either way, but I’m going to lean with Alabama to exact revenge on the Sooners simply because I can’t trust Oklahoma to do its part offensively. The Tide were already able to move the ball on this defense just a few weeks ago, and even with the venue change, I don’t expect the Tide to turn the ball over 3 times again. For what it’s worth, the Sooners average fewer than 1 takeaway per home game this year. 

Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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