Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

It’s not the most consequential games of the weekend in the Big 12, but we still have a marquee matchup on our hands in this extremely competitive conference when the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday. The Sun Devils have been a bit disappointing compared to preseason expectations to this point, as Kenny Dillingham’s team look lethargic in Week 1, before dropping a nonconference tilt against Mississippi State after initially rallying to take the lead in the final few minutes. Sam Leavitt was projected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation coming into the campaign, but this passing offense has yet to really get going (77th in passing success rate, 75th in EPA per dropback). This is somewhat of a surprise considering the returning production on this offense, including top wideout Jordan Tyson, who has already hauled in 24 receptions and 4 touchdowns to this point. In fact, it is the ground attack that has done the job for the Sun Devils, with Arizona State sitting inside the top 30 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. However, this is still a team that has plenty of talent and has the ability to produce consistent offense, as shown in their Early Downs EPA (ranked 32nd per CFB-Graphs). That gives me confidence in their ability to put up points in this one.

As for the hosts, Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the Bears desperately need to figure things out on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears defense is a whopping 124th in success rate allowed, 121st in net points per drive and 119th in Early Downs EPA on the season. Furthermore, the primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its first 2 games was the ground attack of Auburn and SMU, which gives me confidence that the Sun Devils should continue to run the ball well in this one. On the other side of the ball, Sawyer Robertson has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation thus far and the Baylor offense has been very potent, ranking inside the top 30 in passing success rate, points per drive, along with top 10 marks in Early Downs EPA and quality drives created. With that in mind, both teams should score plenty of points in a game that I expect to come down to the final few possessions. Rather than back a side in this game, I can only look toward the over on Saturday. 

Arizona State vs Baylor prediction: Over 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5

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