Arkansas Razorbacks vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

This is a tough spot for the ‘Hogs, not only because it’s their second straight road game, but because this is the epitome of a sandwich spot. Arkansas took Ole Miss to the brink in Oxford last week and probably should have won, but a costly fumble near the red zone shattered the opportunity. Now, they have this odd non-conference road game against a Group of 5 team right before welcoming Notre Dame to Fayetteville next week. Meanwhile, Memphis coasted through a relatively easy opening 3 weeks despite playing on the road twice already, beating each of its opponents by at least 20 points.

Arkansas will obviously be a drastic step up in class compared to the quality of competition Memphis has seen to this point, but I still believe the Tigers are the side to bet at home on Saturday. Contrary to previous years, the Tigers have relied heavily on the run this season, and they’ve been good at it – ranking top 25 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time against their FBS opponents, as well as top 45 in rush success and explosiveness. This should be an area of opportunity for the Tigers in this matchup considering Arkansas is 93rd in opposing rush PPA and 135th in rushing success rate allowed outside of garbage time.

On the other side, the Razorbacks are extremely dynamic thanks to quarterback Taylen Green. However, he has 4 turnover-worthy plays in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t exactly been the most reliable when playing away from home since he arrived at Arkansas. Against a Memphis defense that generates havoc at a top 12 rate while holding opponents to fewer than 2 points per scoring opportunity, the Razorbacks could be met with some resistance when trying to finish drives on Saturday. 

I power rate this game close to 4 points, so I’m seeing a few points of value on the Tigers here. While I realize Arkansas is a step up in class compared to who Memphis has played to his point, playing power conference opponents have not intimidated the Tigers under Ryan Silverfield. In fact, they are 2-2 SU against Power Four teams over the last 4 years, and only 1 of those losses was by more than 7 points. Give me Memphis.

Arkansas vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers +7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-120)

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