Auburn Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

Headlining the Week 4 college football slate is Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman to play the Oklahoma Sooners. Oddly enough, his first conference game with Auburn will be against his former team – funny how that works. The Tigers are 3-0 ahead of their trip to Oklahoma, including their notable Week 1 win at Baylor despite being outgained and being flagged for 9 penalties. 

Oklahoma is also 3-0, but arguably in more impressive fashion. Not only is the John Mateer show fully underway in Norman, but the Sooners have been electric on defense – surrendering just 1 touchdown and 19 combined points. The advanced metrics love the Sooners, as they rank top 15 nationally in yards per play, PPA per play, and havoc generated. They have also played very clean football to this point, drawing just 4 penalties per FBS game. 

The Sooners already have the edge defensively in this matchup. Now add in the fact that head coach Brent Venables is very familiar with Arnold and, more specifically, what his weaknesses are, and the vision for Auburn becomes murky in Norman. Look for Venables and the Oklahoma defense to have a solution for Arnold’s run game, forcing him to try to create more with his arm – which doesn’t exactly bode well for Auburn’s offense. Venables’ defenses are known to be very aggressive with a heavy amount of pressure and blitzing, which Arnold really struggles against dating back to his time with Oklahoma. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma’s offense struggle to get off the mat in this one. Lay it with Boomer Sooner.

Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

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This game could play out like Oklahoma’s matchup with Michigan a few weeks ago. In that game, both teams relied more on the run than the pass, while leaning on their defenses in a big way. As such, there weren’t many possessions in that game, much less scoring opportunities, and it stayed well under the closing total. In fact, there were more punts than scoring plays in that contest. 

Auburn is a run-first team that plays at an average pace, but the Tigers really know how to bleed the clock. They showcased that ability against Baylor in Week 1 with a 6-minute drive and a 7-minute drive, as well as against South Alabama last week when they put together a 16-play drive that lasted over 8 minutes and a 12-play drive that lasted nearly 6 minutes. Oklahoma had similar drives against Michigan, one for 8 minutes and another for 5. Don’t be surprised to see those long drives stall or lead to field goals, as both red zone defenses have good at limiting touchdowns to this point – especially Oklahoma. The Sooners have surrendered just 4 red zone trips, allowing 0 touchdowns and 3 field goals. Meanwhile, the Tigers are top 30 in opposing red zone touchdown percentage, yielding 4 touchdowns on 10 red zone trips. 

I highlighted Oklahoma’s defensive traits in the spread preview and believe those traits correlate with an under in this matchup when considering the expected methodical offensive approach  from both sides. Look for the Sooners to contain Arnold and limit Auburn’s scoring, and expect the clock to be running consistently throughout. 

Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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