Auburn Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/27/25

The Auburn Tigers don’t have much time to dwell on the loss at Oklahoma, as they hit the road again this week to play another ranked team in Texas A&M in College Station. In fact, this will be Auburn’s third true road game in the first five weeks of the season, which isn’t the best situation to be in ahead of a matchup with an Aggies team that was idle last week following its major win at Notre Dame in Week 3.

The Aggies have been excellent offensively this season, ranking 16th in yards per play and 27th in PPA per play outside of garbage time. They have been particularly good through the air, as they currently sit in the top 25 in PPA per pass and passing explosiveness outside of garbage time thanks to their two new receivers in KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Craver has been especially good, sitting second nationally in yards after catch – despite playing one less game than the leader – and third nationally in yards per route run. 

Texas A&M’s ability to move the ball down the field through the air will be key against Auburn on Saturday. The weak spot of Auburn’s defense is in the secondary, as the Tigers are 82nd in passing downs PPA and 99th in PPA per pass. Moreover, Auburn is 91st in pass explosiveness, 122nd in PFF’s coverage grade, and 123rd in havoc generated by its defensive backs. Needless to say, Marcel Reed should be able to continue feeding Craver and Concepcion efficiently against Auburn’s defensive backfield. 

I certainly am concerned about Texas A&M’s spotty run defense against Hugh Freeze’s run-heavy offense, but the Tigers will need to be more two-dimensional to win on the road at Kyle Field. Ultimately, I’m not confident enough in Jackson Arnold as a passer to back Auburn in its second-consecutive SEC road game against a ranked opponent despite my power ratings showing value on the Tigers at this number, especially after he took 10 sacks at Oklahoma last week. With a significant rest and preparation advantage, in addition to the home atmosphere from the 12th Man and what I perceive to be a decent coaching advantage for Texas A&M, look for the Aggies to convert a few more crucial plays than the Tigers – eventually leading to a win and cover.

Auburn vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -6.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-110).

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This certainly won’t be the fastest-paced game of Saturday’s loaded college football slate, as the Tigers are 40th in plays per game and 73rd in seconds per play, while the Aggies are 56th and 40th, respectively. However, I still expect points in this matchup given the perceived advantages each offense has against its counterpart. 

Auburn loves to run the ball. The Tigers keep the ball on the ground on close to 55% of their non-garbage time plays, and they are very efficient at moving the ball this way – ranking top 25 in standard downs PPA and PPA per rush. These are the exact areas Texas A&M struggles to defend, as its defense sits outside the top 80 on standard downs and against the run. Conversely, as I highlighted in the spread analysis, Texas A&M has thrived through the air this year, which is exactly where Auburn leaves a bit to be desired defensively. 

Both stop-units have surrendered big play after big play this season. In fact, Auburn and Texas A&M are both outside the top 120 in explosiveness allowed, which means the Tigers and the Aggies should reach scoring range inside the opposing 40-yard line frequently in this matchup. Assuming that happens, expect more touchdowns than field goals or turnovers-on-downs. For reference, both teams average 5.35 points per scoring opportunity while sitting outside the top 50 on the defensive side of that metric. This has the feel of a 34-24 type game, so give me the over.

Auburn vs Texas A&M prediction: Over 52.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 53.5 (-110).

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