Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/08/25

The Auburn Tigers were held to just 3 points last week at home against a 3-5 Kentucky team that surrendered 56 points to Tennessee in Lexington the week prior. Subsequently, Hugh Freeze lost his job, so now defensive coordinator DJ Durkin is the interim head coach while offensive coordinator Derrick Nix will handle the playcalling duties when the Tigers have the ball. Like Auburn, Vanderbilt comes into this game off a loss. However, the Commodores showed some fight last week when they battled back from a 3+ score deficit in Austin to only end up losing by 3. A College Football Playoff berth is still very much in the cards for Vanderbilt as long as it wins out, including at Tennessee in the final week of the season. 

Durkin and the Tigers have their work cut out for them in Nashville on Saturday. The Tigers are obviously flawed on the offensive end, and the coaching changes aren’t necessarily going to help that. Their best offensive attribute is their rushing attack, which just so happens to be the strength of Vanderbilt’s defense – ranking 14th in PPA per rush allowed outside of garbage time since Week 6 and 17th in rushing yards per game allowed throughout the season. 

On the other side of the field, Auburn is actually very sound defensively. However, if the Tigers had one defensive deficiency, it would be against the pass. They are outside the top 75 in passing yards allowed per game and outside the top 80 in yards per pass attempt on the season as a whole, while sitting outside the top 50 in passing downs PPA and PPA per pass since the beginning of October. That figures to be an issue against Vanderbilt, who loves to operate through the air with QB Diego Pavia – who is 2nd in the SEC in big-time throws (top-20 nationally).

The ‘Dores have been very good at home this year no matter the gamestyle, winning convincingly and even winning games they arguably should have lost. Each of their home wins has been by at least 7 points, and I’m not sure why that would change against this Auburn team – which might be looking ahead to next season sooner rather than later. With a significant quarterback advantage, as well as a stark motivational edge, it’s Vanderbilt or nothing for me in this one. 

Auburn vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7. 

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