Baylor Bears vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

With a 49-17 victory at Oklahoma State in Week 8, the Cincinnati Bearcats remained atop the Big 12 standings alongside BYU as the only 2 undefeated teams in conference play. They will return home this weekend to play the Baylor Bears, who are on the heels of a 42-36 loss at TCU last week. It was the 2nd loss in 4 weeks for the Bears, who weren’t exactly very inspiring in wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State in between those 2 losses. 

This will be the second road game in as many weeks for the Baylor Bears, which isn’t the best omen for them. Their defense has really struggled on the road to this point, surrendering 38 regulation points at SMU, 27 points at Oklahoma State (the most points it has scored against an FBS opponent this year) and 42 points last week at TCU. This poor run of defense reflects in the numbers, as the Bears are outside the top 90 in yards per play and third-down conversion rate allowed this year. More recently, Baylor has allowed opponents to score an average of 4.76 points per quality drive since Week 4 – which is bottom 20 nationally in that time. Opponents have reached the red zone 25 times against the Bears, coming away with points on 22 of those trips and touchdowns on 17 of them. Those marks put Baylor outside the top 100 in red zone defense, which isn’t ideal considering Cincinnati leads the country in red zone offense. The Bearcats have scored on all 28 of their red zone trips, finding the end zone on 22 of them. 

While Cincinnati has its own issues defensively, the Bearcats are more trustworthy offensively – especially at home. Cincinnati is 7th in yards per play this season, and has been one of the top 15 offenses in the country when it comes to down-to-down efficiency over the last 5 weeks – whether it be on the ground or through the air. Much of Cincinnati’s offensive success is thanks to Brendan Sorsby, who is currently the top quarterback in the Big 12 by a decent margin per PFF’s passing grade. With Sorsby, the Bearcats have the edge at the quarterback position in this game, as he’s thrown for 14 big-time throws and just 3 turnover-worthy plays this year. His average depth of target is the biggest in the conference, and his receivers have been the most trustworthy (only 5 drops) – making this offense a legitimate threat down the field. Furthermore, Sorsby boasts a sparkling 3.6% pressure-to-sack rate, which is among the best in all FBS. 

Sorsby’s success in the pocket pairs very nicely with a strong rushing offense, and that’s exactly what the Bearcats have. They are 2nd in the Big 12 in PFF rush grade, with top-15 marks in PPA per rush and standard downs PPA. Moreover, their 6.03 yards per attempt is good for 5th nationally. Meanwhile, Baylor surrenders almost 4.5 yards per carry and was just lit up for 196 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns at TCU last week. Given the advantage of playing at home against a poor defense and a turnover-plagued offense in tandem with the edge at quarterback, I am buying Cincinnati in this matchup anything better than -6.

Baylor vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -4 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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