Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/06/25

One of the biggest games on the Week 2 college football card comes in an all-Texas showdown between the Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs on Saturday. Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the national perception of the Bears certainly took a hit following a 38-24 defeat at the hands of Auburn to open the season. Given that early loss out of conference, it does feel like the Bears desperately need a win this week against a quality out of conference opponent to maintain any room for error in terms of their College Football Playoff aspirations. On the other side, SMU dispatched of East Texas A&M in its first game, but the Mustangs were far from convincing in that performance. With that in mind, I’m certainly partial to the visitors in this in-state matchup.

The primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its season opener was Auburn’s unique ground attack. The Tigers can beat you in a number of different ways on the ground, and there wasn’t much film to be had for Derrick Nix’s unit with Jackson Arnold now in the fold at quarterback. As a result, the Tigers held a 72% Success Rate on the ground, with the bulk of the damage coming from Arnold at the quarterback spot. While SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings does have some mobility, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be nearly as effective on the ground in this game. After all, the Mustangs struggled to get any explosiveness in that department against a poor FCS opponent in Week 1, registering just under 4.5 yards per carry. To make matters worse, it was not a clean operation for SMU at all, as the offense finished with 3 turnovers and was poor on 3rd downs.

What’s even more concerning for SMU was its performance on defense, with the Mustangs allowing over 350 yards of offense and nearly 5 yards per play, despite forcing a trio of turnovers. East Texas A&M also dominated the time of possession in the game, which is more of a product of SMU’s extremely fast tempo on offense. However, this week’s contest is not a game where playing fast will necessarily help you, as Sawyer Robinson and Baylor’s offense is just as capable of scoring quickly against a beleaguered defense. The Bears also already got to face an SEC unit and moved the ball pretty well in that game, so this should not be a step-up in class in the slightest. Ultimately, this projects to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points, so I’ll grab the points with the underdog in this Texas showdown.

Baylor vs SMU prediction: Baylor +3.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3 (-120). 

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