Boise State Broncos vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/04/25

It’s not the biggest game of the week, but Saturday’s contest between the Boise State Broncos and Notre Dame Fighting Irish is one that promises to produce some fireworks. Boise State got off to a rocky start in Week 1, as the Broncos were clearly adjusting to life without running back Ashton Jeany, who was arguably the best player in program history. However, following that defeat at the hands of a very strong USF team, the Broncos have gotten back on track in a big way with convincing wins over Eastern Washington, Air Force and Appalachian State in recent weeks. Boise State returned plenty of production from last season’s offense, including quarterback Maddux Madsen and a couple of excellent receiving targets in Latrell Caples and Matt Lauter, and the passing game has come alive over the last few weeks in their victories. The rushing attack hasn’t been the same without a generational talent like Jeanty, but the Broncos still have a 3-headed monster in the backfield with Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley and Malik Sherrod all taking turns sharing the success behind a veteran offensive line. This is an experienced offense that should be able to put up points against a Notre Dame defense that has a host of issues, as the Irish sit outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed and quality drive rate, while also checking in at 93 in Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). 

On the other side of the ball, the one thing we know about Notre Dame is that Marcus Freeman’s team has one of the top offenses in college football. Despite struggling out of the gate in Week 1 against Miami, the Irish have racked up at least 40 points in each of their last 3 contests. Furthermore, they’ve put up 56 points in each of their last 2 games, including a road win over Arkansas a week ago that was as dominant of an offensive showing as you can think of. Despite the drop-off in talent, Boise State’s defense is likely a step-up in class compared to the poor effort we saw from the Razorbacks a week ago, but this is still a Broncos unit that can be had in the run game (71st in EPA per rush, 96th in Early Downs EPA) and struggled to get off the field against Air Force a few weeks ago. That’s not a recipe for success against Jeremiyah Love and a Notre Dame rush attack that is as lethal and efficient as any across college football. The Irish are a top 10 unit both Early Downs and 3rd and 4th downs, in addition to ranking first nationally in points scored per quality drive (a possession inside the opponent’s 40-yard line). With that in mind, I’d look for Notre Dame to put forth another 40+ point performance in this one, and Boise State should hold up its end of the bargain enough to push this game over the total. 

Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction: Over 62.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 63.5

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