Boise State Broncos vs South Florida Bulls Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 08/28/25

One of the best games on this loaded Week 1 slate comes in Tampa Bay, where the Boise State Broncos will take on the South Florida Bulls in a game that has plenty of significance for the future of the Group of 5 playoff picture down the road this season. Boise State enters this difficult contest having lost Ashton Jeany — arguably the best player in program history — to the NFL. However, the Broncos still return plenty of production from last season’s offense, including 4 starters on the offensive line, plus quarterback Maddux Madsen and his top receiving targets in Latrell Caples and Matt Lauter. The ground game won’t be the same without a generational talent like Jeanty, but the Broncos will still have a 2-headed monster in the backfield with Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and Sire Gaines (7.8 yards per carry in 2024) leading the charge. However, even with Jeanty in the backfield, Boise State still struggled when playing in the southern heat in Week 1 against Georgia Southern last year. That same scenario could play out on Thursday in South Florida, especially since this will be the first time Madsen faces an opposing defense where he will be the main focus.

As for the hosts, USF struggled a season ago due to the inconsistent play it got at the quarterback position from Byrum Brown. However, that was largely due to injury, and while Brown is certainly an injury risk from a long-term perspective this season, he’ll certainly be at this healthiest in Week 1. Alex Golesh is a coach I’m bullish on, and I expect the influx of talent on this roster to be a real difference maker for the veer and chute offense that Golesh likes to run. As long as Brown is given some time by his offensive line, he should see success in this matchup against a Boise State defense that is excellent at getting to the quarterback, but struggled mightily in the back end a season ago. Ultimately, I’ll bank on another close call for the Broncos down south, even if Boise State is able to escape this season opener with a victory.

Boise State vs USF prediction: USF +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6

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