BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

Arguably the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday comes in Ames, Iowa, where the Iowa State Cyclones are set to host the BYU Cougars in a game that could decide the fate of both teams in the conference title race this season. And while BYU is undefeated on the season, the Cougars statistical profile doesn’t quite match their resume to this point. With that in mind, it’s not a surprise that Iowa State is a small favorite at home and the Cyclones are one of my favorite bets on the board this weekend.

For starters, this is a pretty excellent situational spot for Iowa State, as Matt Campbell’s team is coming off a bye week to rest and get a lot healthier following a difficult stretch of road games against Cincinnati and Colorado, both of which resulted in losses. Now, you’re getting one of the best coaches in the Big 12 in desperation spot against a BYU team that is not only coming off a win in the Holy War over Utah, but a comeback overtime victory against Arizona the week before, a game in which the Cougars were trailing by double digits in the 4th quarter. There’s no doubt that while BYU is certainly a good team — one that has outperformed preseason expectations — the Cougars have been pretty fortunate to remain undefeated through a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule to this point. It certainly helps matters that this should be the healthiest Iowa State has been in weeks, as the Cyclones are getting key contributors back on defense and special teams for this game, including their kicker. The Iowa State defense is 24th in EPA per rush and 28th in Early Downs EPA, so the Cyclones should be able to slow down Bear Bachmeier and the BYU rushing attack, especially since the Cougars have already struggled with finishing drives this season. On the other side, Rocco Becht and the Iowa State offense is a top 20 unit in quality drives created, even with suffering a rash of injury at the wide receiver spot early in the year. Look for Campbell’s offense to be at its best off the bye week against a BYU defense that is certainly due for some major turnover regression going forward. All things considered, I’ll lay the points with the Cyclones at home.

BYU vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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