Colorado Buffaloes vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 09/12/25

We have a very interesting matchup in the Big 12 to kick off Friday’s college football slate as the Colorado Buffaloes will travel to Houston to take on the Cougars. The season has gotten off to a fairly tumultuous start for Deion Sanders and his team, as Colorado was unable to capitalize on 3 first-half turnovers from Georgia Tech and ended up dropping that game at home. The Buffaloes did bounce back with a win against Delaware a week ago, but it wasn’t exactly the cleanest performance from Colorado, as the Blue Hens actually averaged 6 yards per play and nearly equaled Colorado in total yardage and first downs.

Following that performance, the Buffaloes are now expected to start Ryan Staub, who is certainly the most consistent of the three Colorado quarterbacks that played against Delaware. However, it certainly doesn’t do much for the upside of this offense in my eyes, especially since it removes the threat of any sort of quarterback run game. If the Buffaloes end up being one dimensional on Friday, that should play right into the hands of the Houston defense, as the Cougars are 33rd in EPA per play and sit inside the top 50 in success rate allowed, EPA per dropback and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). As for Houston’s offense, the Cougars are not exactly setting the world on fire, with Connor Weigman and company struggling to generate success on late downs, particularly in obvious passing situations (130th in 3rd and 4th down success rate). Houston is a team that should look to keep the ball on the ground and focus on being methodical in this game, and I do think the Cougars are ultimately going to grind down a Buffaloes defensive front that is 120th in success rate allowed. Add in the fact that Houston should have a terrific home crowd behind them against a brand new starting quarterback on a short week, and that gives us a recipe for the home favorite in Friday’s matchup.

Colorado vs Houston predictions: Houston -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Houston -5.5

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While I prefer taking Houston to cover the number in this game, there is a path for either team to win and/or cover the spread while also keeping this game under the posted total. Houston’s defense has been excellent at limiting explosive plays from their opponent, as the Cougars rank 3rd nationally in standard downs explosiveness and 4th in rushing explosiveness allowed. With that in mind, I certainly don’t see Colorado having much success running the ball and/or picking up a ton of chunk plays in this contest, especially since the Buffaloes are struggling mightily to establish their ground attack through the first 2 weeks as it is. Houston’s defense should see plenty of success and Colorado should do just enough against the Houston passing attack to keep this one in the low 40s on Friday. Let’s bank on a low-scoring game.

Under 44.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.