Duke Blue Devils vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/13/25

A week ago, I was all over Duke to cover the number as short home underdogs against an Illinois team that I was looking to fade at the earliest opportunity. And while the Blue Devils ended up falling short in that game, the box score and eventual final score was extremely misleading if you actually watched the proceedings. For starters, the Blue Devils lost the turnover battle by a whopping 6-0 margin, with multiple of those miscues coming either inside their own 25-yard line and directly leading to points for Illinois, or in the Illinois red zone and taking potential points off the board for Duke as a result. It was also a disaster from a situational perspective, as Duke had special teams miscues and/or untimely bad penalties on multiple occasions that kept drives alive for the Illini while simultaneously halting any momentum the Blue Devils generated. Despite all of this, Darian Mensah and the Duke offense still outgained the Illini while registering a 49% success rate (85th percentile) and averaging nearly 7 yards per play. On the other side of the ball, Manny Diaz’s defense racked up 14 tackles for loss and completely stymied the Illinois ground game. Call me crazy, but I would bet Duke again in last week’s matchup and I’m going back to the well with the Blue Devils on Saturday.

Tulane was another team I was looking to fade early in the season, and while the Green Wave rolled over Northwestern in Week 1, much of that was due to a myriad of turnovers and poor play by the Wildcats in their first game with a new quarterback and offensive scheme. The Green Wave escaped with a win over South Alabama was nearly 2 touchdown favorites in Week 2, a game in which they were outgained and allowed 6.5 yards per play, but won the turnover battle and stopped a game-tying 2-point conversion attempt in the final minute to secure the victory. I don’t see things going nearly as smoothly for Jake Retzlaff and company this week, as this will be their toughest test yet against a Duke defense that is 17th in passing success rate allowed and 21st in net points per drive allowed (CFB-Graphs). The Blue Devils offense is also due for some major positive regression on 3rd downs, to say nothing of the positive regression that is surely coming for Duke in the turnover department as well. In fact, Tulane has won the turnover battle by a 7-1 margin over the first 2 weeks while Duke has lost the battle by a 7-0 margin in that same span. Eventually that will correct itself a bit, and it starts on Saturday with a win over Tulane in a revenge game for Mensah against his former team. Duke is the better overall team and I firmly believe the Blue Devils should be favored by around a field goal in this matchup.

Duke vs Tulane prediction: Duke ML (+116) available at time of writing. Playable to -110. 

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