Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

Billy Napier’s seat is getting hot again in Gainesville, as the Gators dropped to 1-2 after a tough showing at LSU last week. Florida’s defense was excellent, holding LSU to 316 yards, 4/14 on third down, and 3.8 yards per carry. However, DJ Lagway’s struggles continued, throwing not one, not two, but five interceptions in Death Valley. His decision making will be put to the test again this week in another true road game at in-state rival Miami, who just decimated the very USF team that beat Florida in Week 2. 

Miami’s offense has been cruising. The Hurricanes are top 25 in yards per play, PPA per play, points per scoring opportunity, and red zone touchdowns. They also sit top 25 in turnover margin, PPA per rush allowed, and havoc generated. In other words, they are set up to stop Florida’s rushing attack – spearheaded by Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson – and force Lagway into tough throws with high turnover probability. 

This is absolutely a desperation spot for the Gators, but it’s tough to trust their offense enough to stay within the number against a Carson Beck-led offense that can seemingly score any time it touches the ball. Not to mention this is Florida’s second-consecutive road game and top-5 matchup. Look for Beck and his talented group of pass-catchers to find success against a Florida secondary that is outside the top 60 in PPA per pass, and expect the Miami pass rush to put Lagway in uncomfortable situations throughout. 

Florida vs Miami prediction: Miami Hurricanes -7.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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All three of Florida’s games have stayed under the total, and I expect that trend to continue at Hard Rock Stadium against the Hurricanes on Saturday night. The Gators have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball, ranking outside the top 90 in yards per play and PPA per play, in addition to 126th in turnover margin and 125th in penalties per game. Furthermore, they’ve had difficulty finishing drives with points, as they sit outside the top 75 in points per opportunity and outside the top 50 in red zone trips. 

Defensively, Florida played very well last week, and while I don’t feel the Gators can completely stifle the Hurricanes offense, they should be able to at least apply enough resistance to Carson Beck and company to keep this game under the total. If nothing else, Florida’s defense has been solid at preventing quality drives, and when opponents happen to get to the red zone, the Gators have held them out of the end zone more often than not. Again, Miami should score enough to build a margin and cover the number due to Florida’s offensive issues, but not enough to propel this over the total.

For what it’s worth, neither of these offenses play with much pace. In fact, both teams are outside the top 30 in plays per game and rank 120th or lower in seconds per play. Let’s take the under here. 

Florida vs Miami prediction: Under 51.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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