Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/11/25

On the heels of their first win over a power conference opponent this season, the Florida Gators will hit the road for a date with the Texas A&M Aggies. It will be the 5th home game of the season for the Aggies, as well as their third straight before ending the season with 4 of 6 games on the road. Meanwhile, this will be Florida’s 3rd road game in 4 outings, having lost to LSU and Miami in their previous road games by a combined score of 46-17.

Florida is in a tough spot here. While the Gators looked impressive last week against Texas, they benefited from playing at home off a bye. Sure, the bye was mutual, but clearly Florida used that bye as an opportunity to correct its mistakes and adjust the game plan, while Texas seemed complacent with its approach after multiple blowout wins over inferior opponents and could have been looking ahead to its rivalry game against Oklahoma this week. After all, Texas beat Florida soundly last year in Austin, which may have given the Gators a bit of a revenge motivation factor as well.

Florida is a wildcard. DJ Lagway looked good against Texas, but it’s hard to erase the 5-interception performance at LSU from my mind. I simply don’t trust him on the road, and it’s hard to trust Florida as a whole in what figures to be an emotional letdown spot in one of the most intimidating venues in college football. In fact, this exact spot is not a favorable one for Florida. Since 2021, conference road underdogs playing at a ranked opponent after just winning at home as an underdog are just 6-21 ATS and 1-27 SU. Going one step further, when the line is at or shorter than 2 touchdowns, the favorites in these matchups are 15-2 ATS. I project Texas A&M as an 8.2-point favorite, so I will follow the unison of my projections and the trends and take the Aggies. 

Florida vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -7.5 (+100) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8. 

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Texas A&M showcased a high-flying offense with a porous defense early in the season, but after their bye week, the Aggies have really tightened up. Their 2 recent games have been extremely physical, and their defense stepped up to the plate by holding Auburn and Mississippi State to 19 points combined in back-to-back weeks. In fact, the Tigers gained just 177 total yards against the Aggies, while the Bulldogs had only 219. Now, the Aggies welcome a Florida offense to Kyle Field that ranks 67th in points per quality drive, 95th in yards per play, 101st in PPA per play, and 122nd in third-down conversion rate. Look for Texas A&M’s defense to continue to thrive at home. 

Despite a 2-3 record, Florida’s defense has been solid. You could even argue Florida’s defense was the only reason games against LSU and Miami were so close, though Florida lost both of those games by double digits. The Gators rank 20th nationally in points allowed per quality drive, and they have top 5 marks in PPA per play, third-down conversion rate and havoc generated. I expect them to provide just enough resistance opposite of Texas A&M’s offense to keep this game under the total. 

Florida vs Texas A&M prediction: Under 47.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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