Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/11/25

The Georgia Bulldogs got back into the win column last week with a convincing 35-14 victory over Kentucky on the heels of a 24-21 home loss to Alabama. Georgia now hits the road for just the second time this season, as it heads to Auburn to play the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. In their only other road game, the Bulldogs surrendered 496 yards to Tennessee and turned the ball over twice. They really should have lost that game, but Tennessee couldn’t connect on what would have been a game-winning field goal. 

Auburn is 0-2 in the SEC thus far, but those losses were by 7 and 6 points at Oklahoma and Texas A&M, respectively. This week, the Tigers will benefit from playing at home after a bye week that Georgia did not share. Unfortunately, I don’t think the situational spot is going to be enough for Auburn in this one. The Tigers simply aren’t balanced enough offensively. They are great on standard downs and highly efficient when the ball stays on the ground. However, they are the polar opposite when Jackson Arnold throws the ball. In fact, Auburn is 131st nationally in passing downs PPA and 116th in PPA per pass.The Tigers tend to play sloppy as well, ranking 129th in penalties per game – which is a massive disadvantage in this matchup compared to Georgia’s ranking of 31st. 

Georgia has been incredibly strong against the run this year. The Bulldogs defense is 5th nationally in PPA per rush, 7th in rushing success rate and 10th in rush explosiveness outside of garbage time to this point of the season, holding FBS opponents to fewer than 2.7 yards per rush and just 82 rushing yards per game. Going one step further, Georgia has surrendered only 7 runs of 10+ yards this season, which is 2nd nationally. If Arnold continues to struggle as a passer despite a loaded wide receiver core at his disposal, Auburn isn’t going to have much of a chance in this one. Considering he has 4 turnover-worthy plays against 3 power conference opponents and failed to achieve a PFF passing grade above 60 in any of those contests, there’s no indication that Arnold will improve for this matchup with Georgia. Give me the ‘Dawgs.

Georgia vs Auburn prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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I don’t expect this game to have much pace, as Georgia and Auburn rank 88th and 69th, respectively, in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Neither team is particularly explosive either, as both Georgia and Auburn are in the bottom 10 nationally in overall explosiveness outside of garbage time, as the Bulldogs rank 60th in plays of 20+ yards this season while Auburn sits at 118th. 

Without a ton of pace, I don’t see how these teams score enough to push this game over the total – specifically Auburn. With Jackson Arnold at quarterback, Auburn hasn’t been able to efficiently pass the ball down the field despite a loaded wide receiver room, which plays directly into Georgia’s strength defensively. On the other side of the field, the Bulldogs prefer to keep the ball on the ground. In fact, Georgia is 22nd nationally in rush rate outside of garbage time. Look for the clock to move continuously in what should be a low-scoring matchup. 

Georgia vs Auburn prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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