Illinois Fighting Illini vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/20/25

One of the biggest games on the Week 4 college football slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana on Saturday, when the Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. This is a massive game in the Big Ten for a couple of teams that have an outside shot of disrupting the College Football Playoff picture, and it features a team that I am looking to back against a team I feel very comfortable fading.

Earlier this season, I faded Illinois against Duke and I would still make that bet again given the circumstances around that game. After all, Illinois won the turnover battle 5-0, was gifted points by the Blue Devils on numerous occasions and was able to take advantage of special teams miscues and untimely penalties from Duke in the victory. The Illini were still outgained in that game, and Duke registered a 49% success rate (85th percentile) on an Illinois defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate and rate of quality drives allowed (CFB-Graphs).

In steps an Indiana offense that has been rolling of late, as the Hoosiers sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point, and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal against an Illini secondary that has certainly struggled in the lone game where they had to play a competent offense. The Indiana offensive line is also quite strong, and it should hold an edge in this game against an Illinois defensive front that has yet to face a unit of this caliber.

On the other side of the ball, I’m still not sold on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing attack. Despite the fact that the Illini receivers stepped up against Duke, that performance has not aged particularly well, seeing as we just saw Tulane make quick work of the Blue Devils’ defense, to the tune of nearly 7 yards per play. The Illini have also struggled with generating explosiveness on offense, particularly in the passing game (69th in passing explosiveness), and that factors in games against Western Michigan and a very poor Western Illinois team. Indiana’s defense is an experienced veteran group and the Hoosiers will certainly be looking to generate turnovers against an Illinois side that has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble to this point in the season. Ultimately, I’m getting to back a great coach in Curt Cignetti, plus the better quarterback in this game at home. I’ll trust my instincts and lay the number with the Hoosiers.

Illinois vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5

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Both of these teams are capable of being very explosive, and we’ve seen as such in each of their first 3 games. However, this is a step-up in class for both sides on Saturday, and this game should be played at a much slower a pace on a down-to-down basis. After all, both of these teams are outside the top 100 in plays per game, along with similar marks in plays per minute. Couple that with the fact that Indiana has been a particularly strong side in terms of controlling the clock, and all signs point to a more deliberate game flow in Bloomington. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that the market has come down a bit off the opener of 54 for this game. It’s not my strongest play on the board by any means, but I’ll take the under at the current number.

Illinois vs Indiana prediction: Under 53 available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5

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