Indiana Hoosiers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/27/25

While Saturday’s college football slate is arguably the most loaded card for the entire regular season, one of the more under the radar games comes in the Big Ten between the Indiana Hoosiers and Iowa Hawkeyes. Last week, I was all over the Hoosiers to win comfortably against Illinois a week ago, but even I was surprised by the absolute bludgeoning that took place in Bloomington. Curt Cignetti’s group clearly had a point to prove and they certainly did just that, as the Hoosiers led from start to finish in a 63-10 demolition of their conference foe. While Indiana certainly looks like a College Football Playoff contender on paper, there is something to be said for the fact that Illinois was likely a pretty overrated team on a national level heading into that contest, and we shouldn’t put too much value on one performance. Now, the Hoosiers have to travel to Kinnick Stadium in a very tricky spot against an opponent that is known for pulling upsets against highly-ranked opponents at home.

Last week marked the third straight game in which Indiana put up at least 56 points, as the Indiana offense has been rolling of late. The Hoosiers currently sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point, and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal. However, this Iowa defense is going to be the best unit that Indiana will have faced all season by a decent margin, as the Hawkeyes rank inside the top 30 in quality drive rate, EPA per dropback and 3rd and 4th down success rate (CFB-Graphs). Earlier this season, Phil Parker’s defense held Iowa State to just 238 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play, so even though the Hoosiers have an excellent group of skill position talent, there is a proof of concept for this unit to at least offer some resistance against an experienced quarterback. On the other side of the ball, Iowa might have finally turned the corner offensively after putting up 38 points and 6.2 yards per play against Rutgers a week ago. If veteran quarterback Mark Gronowski can avoid turning the ball over and the Hawkeyes can establish a bit of success on the ground, this should be another Big Ten game decided by one possession in Iowa City.  

Indiana vs Iowa prediction: Iowa +8 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.5

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