Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/06/25

One of the headline games of the week, the Cy-Hawk rivalry takes place in Ames on Saturday at noon ET with Iowa State laying about a field goal. The Cyclones have won 2 of their last 3 against their in-state rival Iowa Hawkeyes, but the Hawkeyes have the edge long term with 7 wins in their last 9 meetings and an overall series record of 47-24. Regardless of who wins, typically this matchup is very close, as 7 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 3 points or less. Moreover, the road team has won 5 straight games in this series.

Iowa should have a significant advantage on both lines of scrimmage. The Hawkeyes return 3 starting pieces from an offensive line that was top 15 on pass plays and run plays according to PFF, while the defensive line returns its top 3 pieces in Aaron Graves, Ethan Hurkett, and Max Llewellyn – a trio that recorded 20 combined sacks and 62 quarterback hurries. The Hawkeyes also improved at quarterback in the offseason by bringing in Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State, who was one of the best at his position at the FCS level over the last few years. It didn’t look great for him last week against Albany, but I trust that he will look better moving forward and that offensive coordinator Tim Lester will set him up for success.

With an advantage in the trenches and expected improvement in quarterback play, I like Iowa to at least cover the spread in this in-state rivalry matchup. Look for the Iowa defense to play a key role in limiting explosive plays from Rocco Becht, while Lester opens up the playbook for his new quarterback.

Iowa vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes +3 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Cy-Hawk rivalry has been a defensive affair for more than 5 years. In fact, Only 1 Iowa-Iowa State game has gone over the current number, and that was back in 2021 when the Hawkeyes won in Ames 27-17. Every other matchup since 2018 finished with fewer than 40 points. Does that mean anything for the upcoming matchup on Saturday? No, but I wouldn’t dare take an over in this game, as I expect it to be very run-heavy from both offenses. 

Without Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, the Iowa State passing attack has been limited. The wide receivers brought in via the portal to replace the dynamic duo have underperformed, which has catapulted the tight ends into the primary pass-catching roles. The Cyclones have a very strong duo of tight ends in Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle, but the lack of a standout receiver like Higgins or Noel limits Iowa State’s explosiveness through the air. Moreover, Rocco Becht is unlikely to have much time in the pocket to allow downfield routes to develop, as Iowa’s defensive line figures to overpower an Iowa State offensive line that is still adjusting to the departure of its 2 best pieces.

Iowa is consistently one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, and that should remain constant this weekend as the Hawkeyes work in a new quarterback in his first road start at the FBS level. Expecting a slow-paced, run-heavy game yet again in this rivalry series, I lean to the under.

Iowa vs Iowa State prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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