Iowa Hawkeyes vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 12/31/25

Iowa’s recent bowl history includes more SEC opponents than not, and much of the same is true this year when the Hawkeyes meet the Vanderbilt Commodores in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Iowa finished the season 8-4 with losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt finished just outside of the College Football Playoff at 10-2, losing at Alabama and Texas. This game represents a strength-on-strength battle when Vanderbilt’s offense goes up against Iowa’s defense, but also a weakness-on-weakness battle when the Hawkeyes go up against the ‘Dores defense. 

Vanderbilt stud TE Eli Stowers will not play in this game, which will be a big loss for the ‘Dores. However, assuming everyone else plays, which is expected as of Monday morning, Vanderbilt still should have plenty in the tank offensively. Heisman-hopeful QB Diego Pavia is expected to be under center in what figures to be his final collegiate game, and he will be surrounded by capable playmakers at Vanderbilt’s skill positions in RB Sedrick Alexander, WR Tre Richadson, and WR Junior Sherrill. It is Alexander that I believe will be the catalyst for Vanderbilt’s success in this game, as Iowa’s weakest defensive attributes are on the ground. For reference, Iowa is outside the top 50 in PPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed this season, and it was even worse down the stretch – as Hawkeyes are 83rd in PPA per rush and 75th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 9. Furthermore, they haven’t generated a ton of havoc in that stretch, which should give Pavia more time to operate as the maestro of this offense – a unit that finished the season 1st in PPA per play, 2nd in success rate, and 5th in points per quality drive outside of garbage time. 

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt is nowhere near the same level of efficiency defensively as it is offensively. However, Iowa hardly poses a threat when it has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 95th in yards per play and 121st in total offense this season, as well as outside the top 50 PPA per play and success rate since Week 9. The strongest part of this offense is its run game, which just so happens to be the best attribute of Vanderbilt’s defense. The Commodores are top-15 in rushing yards allowed per game, and they are top-35 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 9. 

So long as Pavia and Alexander play, I trust Vanderbilt’s offense way more than Iowa’s, even if the Commodores struggle defensively. Look for Pavia and the ‘Dores to play with a chip on their shoulders in a win and cover over Iowa. 

Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -4 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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